On Friday, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down -0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.62%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.60%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -0.66%.
Stocks gave up early gains on Friday and retreated, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials falling to 3.5-month lows. Stocks fell after crude oil prices recovered from early losses and rose more than +3% as the war in Iran shows no signs of abating. The United States is moving a Marine expeditionary force to the Middle East as Iran escalates attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
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Shares rose early on Friday, when WTI crude gave up gains overnight and fell more than -2% after the US granted a temporary waiver allowing buyers to move Russian oil cargoes already at sea. The U.S. Treasury granted a one-month waiver to imports of Russian oil loaded before Thursday, covering Russian crude and fuel on about 30 tankers carrying at least 19 million barrels. Crude also came under slight pressure after the Financial Times reported that France and Italy had begun talks with Iran to negotiate a deal to guarantee safe passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil prices also got support on Friday after US officials said Iran had begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, an effort that could further complicate US efforts to restart shipping in the waterway. Iran began using smaller boats for operations on Thursday, despite the US destroying most of the Iranian navy’s large ships used to lay mines, according to a US official familiar with the intelligence. Goldman Sachs has warned that if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain low through March, crude oil prices could exceed 2008’s record high of $150 a barrel.
The latest rhetoric from President Trump and Iranian leader Khamenei suggests there will be no immediate let-up in the war that has disrupted energy shipments to the Middle East and raised concerns about rising inflation. Global bond yields have surged this week on inflation fears, with the German 10-year bond yield hitting a 2.25-year high of 2.99% on Friday and the 10-year T-note yield climbing to a 1.25-month high of 4.29%.
Crude oil prices remain low despite efforts to boost global supply. The IEA on Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves and said the war against Iran was disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict would cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has blocked the flow of oil and gas due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they cannot export from the region.
Friday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks. January personal spending, January jolts job openings, and the University of Michigan US March consumer sentiment index all rose more than expected. However, January capital goods new orders for nondefense ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, were weaker than expected. Additionally, Q4 GDP was revised lower, and the mass core PCE price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose by the most in years by 1.75.
US personal spending rose +0.4% per month in January, stronger than expected at +0.3% per month. Personal income rose +0.4% per month in January, weaker than expectations of +0.5% per month.
The US mass core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose +3.1% year-on-year, right on expectations and the highest in 1.75 years.
US mass capital goods new orders non-defense ex-aircraft and parts were unchanged m/m, weaker than expected by +0.5% m/m.
US Q4 GDP was downgraded to +0.7% (q/q annualized) from previously reported +1.4% as Q4 personal consumption was downgraded to +2.0% from previously reported +2.4%.
The University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index fell -1.1 to 55.5, stronger than the expected 54.8.
The University of Michigan’s US March 1-year inflation expectations were unchanged from February at 3.4%, below expectations for a 3.7% rise. March 5-10 year inflation expectations unexpectedly fell to 3.2% from 3.3% in February, weaker than expectations for a 3.4% rise.
US job openings surged by +396,000 to 6.946 million, above expectations of 6.750 million.
Q4 earnings season is almost over, with more than 98% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 495 S&P 500 companies reporting better than expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Magnificent Seven Excluding megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase +4.6%.
Markets are discounting a -25bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Foreign stock markets closed with a decline on Friday. Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.56%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.82%. Japan’s Nikkei stock 225 closed down -1.16%.
interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) closed unchanged on Friday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.8 bp to 4.279%. June T-notes fell to a 1.25-month low on Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield hit a 5-week high of 4.289%. T-notes gave up early gains on Friday after crude oil prices surged more than +3%, raising inflation fears. In addition, mixed US economic news limited gains in T-notes after Jan Jolts’ job opening, and the University of Michigan’s March consumer sentiment index rose more than expected, which is a dangerous factor for Fed policy. In contrast, Q4 GDP was revised lower, and new orders for mass capital goods grew less than expected, supportive factors for T-notes. Additionally, Friday’s stock weakness boosted some safe-haven demand for T-notes.
European government bond yields rose on Friday. The 10-year German Bund yield rose to a 2.25-year high of 2.992% and touched +2.6bp to 2.983%. 10-year UK gilt yields hit a 6.25-month high of 4.825% and ended +4.9bp at 4.823%.
UK GDP was unchanged m/m, weaker than expected by +0.2% m/m.
Manufacturing output in the UK rose +0.1% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
The swaps are discounting a -25% probability of a 3bp ECB rate hike at their next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
Magnificent Seven Technology shares closed lower, with Meta Platform (META) down more than -3% after The New York Times reported that the company’s latest AI model has performed below expectations and will be delayed. Additionally, Apple (AAPL) closed down more than -2%, and Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than -1%. Also Tesla (TSLA) closed down -0.96%. Amazon.com (AMZN) closed down -0.89% and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down -0.42%.
Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies were higher on Friday, a supportive factor for the broader market. Sandisk (SNDK) led the S&P 500 with gains of more than +6%, and Micron Technology (MU) led the Nasdaq 100 with gains of more than +4%. Additionally, Western Digital (WDC) closed up over +4%, and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) closed up over +2%. Additionally, Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Intel (INTC) closed up more than +1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks moved higher on Friday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rose more than +1% to hit a 1-week high. Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed up more than +8%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) closed up more than +6%. Additionally, Strategy& (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up more than +1%.
Mining stocks were sold off on Friday as copper prices fell more than -2%, gold prices fell more than -1%, and silver prices fell more than -4%. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) closed down more than -9%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) closed down more than -6%. Additionally, Southern Copper (SCCO) closed down more than -5%, and Newmont Mining (NEM), Hecla Mining (HL), Barrick Mining (B), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed down more than -4%.
Fertilizer stocks fell on Friday, giving back some of this week’s sharp gains. Intrepid Potash (IPI) and Mosaic (MOS) closed down more than -6%, and CF Industries Holdings (CF) closed down more than -4%.
EverCommerce (EVCM) closed down more than -15% after estimating Q1 revenue of $145.5 million to $148.5 million, well below the consensus of $151 million.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) led the losers on the S&P 500, falling more than -14% after it forecast full-year comparable sales to rise 2.5% to 3.5%, below the consensus of 3.5%.
Adobe (ADBE) led the Nasdaq 100 with losses down more than -7% after CEO Narayan said he would resign and remain in his position until a successor is appointed.
Insulate (PODD) closed down more than -6% after a voluntary recall of some Omnipod 5 pods due to a manufacturing issue led to 18 reports of serious adverse events.
ServiceTitan (TTAN) closed down more than -5% after reporting a fourth-quarter EPS loss of -44 cents, exceeding the consensus of -41 cents.
Klarna Group PLC (KLAR) closed up more than +9% after SEC filings revealed Chairman Moritz bought 3.47 million shares through an affiliated entity between March 3 and March 11.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) closed up more than +2% after it expected revenue growth of 16% in Q1 and said the company’s “diversified financial model continues to perform well.”
Carvana (CVNA) closed up more than +2% after its board approved a 5-for-1 split of its common stock.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) closed up more than +1% after Mizuho Securities raised its price target on the stock from $100 to $120.
Earnings Report(3/16/2026)
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) and Science Applications International (SAIC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here for more information.
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