The projected markets bullishness will continue into 2026, with monthly trading volume nearing $26 billion in March, according to a Wednesday report from Bitgate Wallet, prepared in collaboration with Polymarket and Dune Analytics.
Retail scales predict market growth
The report found that about 82% of users on PolyMarket, the largest prediction market platform, traded less than $10,000 in the first quarter, while only 2.5% crossed the $100,000 mark.
Micro users dominated the majority of transactions on Polymarket, averaging $35, while light investors traded $392. This translates into millions of transactions by individual traders, rather than “large positions being taken by a handful of institutions,” the report said.
Prediction markets are growing rapidly, with volume rising to $26 billion in March, a 95% increase from $1.2 billion in 2025. Bitgate Wallet’s report estimates that the prediction market could grow to $240 billion in annual volume in 2026 and reach $1 trillion by 2030.
The report highlights a specific pattern in which users focus on broadening their scope rather than increasing the size of the business. Micro merchants logged an average of 2.5 active days across 1.45 categories, while mid-level users logged an average of 2.3 active days across 9.9 categories.
“Each new category a user discovers becomes another reason to return. This shows that retention is not driven by taking bigger risks, but by expanding the range of opportunities users can engage with,” Bitgate Wallet reported.
Crypto dominates prediction markets
Crypto remains the dominant driver of prediction markets, accounting for 39.6% of activity among the smallest traders in Q1. In particular, activity is highly concentrated in Bitcoin, which attracts approximately 593,000 users and $5.42 billion in volume, with an average trade of $3.16. The average trade size of bets on altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Solana (SOL) was $2 to $3.
It is noteworthy that while crypto appears to be the main gateway to the prediction markets, its share falls as users become more active, averaging 36.8% among mid-level users.
Another observation that stands out is the shift from crypto to real-world events. Sports events increased from 22.7% among micro merchants to 29.2% among mid-tier merchants in Q1. Political events remained stable, averaging 28% across all regions.
Forecast Markets and Macro Signals
Prediction markets are moving ahead of trading and creating macro-layer signals amid global uncertainty. Politically focused marketplaces generated up to $1 billion in Q1, driven by approximately 377,000 users. The election cost $942 million, encompassing policy, trade relations and macro development, not just a single moment.
The report concludes that prediction markets are maturing into a full-fledged industry rather than a market driven by the occasional trade. To achieve the projected growth, stakeholders must focus not only on creating more markets, but also on helping users access information, discover key movers, interpret signals, and act on them with minimal friction.
Bitcoin, Altcoins, Stablecoins FAQ
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to be used as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group or entity, which eliminates the need for third party involvement during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, but some people also consider Ethereum a non-altcoin because of the forking of these two cryptocurrencies. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin built from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, their value backed by the reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of a stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US dollar (USD), whose supply or demand is controlled by an algorithm. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide on/off-ramps for investors looking to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value as cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of the market capitalization of Bitcoin to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies. This provides a clear picture of the interest in Bitcoin among investors. High BTC dominance typically occurs before and during bullish rallies, with investors resorting to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. A decline in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits into altcoins in search of higher returns, which usually triggers the explosion of altcoin rallies.
