federal Reserve (Fed) Kursi Jerome Powell Further comments added During his testimony before the Congress Budget Committee on TuesdayCreating your case to cut rates for some time in the fourth quarter.
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When the time is correct, it is expected that the rate will continue to cut.
Data suggests that at least some tariffs will kill the consumer.
I think we will start watching more tariff inflation starting in June.
As we go through summer, we must be learning.
I am fully open to the idea that the tariff-infection passes by as much as we think.
We do not need to live in any crowd.
If it turns out that the pressure of inflation lies, we will reach a place where we cut the rates.
I will not point to a particular month.
Fed is just trying to be careful and cautious with inflation.
This is uncertainty about the size and potential firmness of inflation from tariffs.
The economy is slowing down this year. Immigration is a reason.
Shock absorber from the US oil industry is now in question.
If the oil prices rise then the Fed will look at the overall position.
The dollar is going to be reserved for a long time.
I do not think MBS runoff has a major impact on the housing cost.
Once we reach there, we can react more strongly to the recession in the economy.
I think the fed is on the correct track in the balance sheet shrinking.
Some shrink to the balance sheet in the fed.
Credit conditions for small businesses a bit tight.
We will expect to see meaningful tariff inflation effects in June, July or August.
If we do not see this, then it will have to be cut before.
Right now, we are in clock and waiting mode.
Overall, the picture of inflation is actually very positive.
