Ripple (XRP) is trading above $1.60 on Monday, attempting to recover from last week’s sharp decline that saw it test support at $1.50. Although the cross-border remittance token is up nearly 2% so far intraday, weak on-chain metrics and a decline in retail participation suggest the recovery may face headwinds.
Retail demand slows as inflows into XRP ETF resume
Institutional investors turned to XRP as losses spread across the crypto market, with funds sinking into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Crypto investment products tracking the XRP spot price recorded inflows of nearly $17 million on Friday after recording the largest single-day outflow since its launch on Thursday of nearly $17 million.
ETF flows serve as a gauge for market sentiment, with large or steady flows indicating investors are confident that XRP can maintain a recovery in the short term.
Meanwhile, retail interest in XRP extended its bearish trend, as OI dropped to $2.81 billion on Monday from $2.97 billion the previous day. Open Interest (OI) tracks the total notional value of outstanding futures contracts, making it a leading indicator of market participation.
The decreasing OI shows that investors are not confident in XRP’s ability to maintain its upward momentum. More importantly, the falling OI suggests that traders are closing positions instead of opening new ones, weakening the tailwind XRP needs to sustain the recovery.
Subsequently, addresses actively transacting on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) corrected to about 18,000 by Sunday, underscoring the low on-chain participation. The active addresses metric rose to nearly 21,500 on Saturday, but the gains were quickly wiped out as weak demand weighed on the price.
Technical Outlook: XRP Bulls Attempt Recovery
XRP is trading at $1.62, up from $1.59 at the start of the day. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.96, the 100-day EMA at $2.10, and the 200-day EMA at $2.25 slope lower and pile up above the price, limiting the rebound and preserving a bearish structure.
Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line remains below the signal line on the daily chart, with the negative histogram extending below the zero line, prompting investors to reduce their risk appetite. However, the Relative Strength (RSI) at 28 (oversold) on the same chart is moving slightly higher, indicating seller exhaustion.
A falling trend line from $3.66 limits gains, with resistance at $2.21 likely to limit rebound attempts. A daily close below the immediate support at $1.60 will keep the bearishness in check and XRP looks set to test the next demand zone at $1.50.
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(The technical analysis for this story was written with the help of AI tools.)
