On Monday the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) fell -0.92%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) fell -1.18%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) fell -0.83%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) fell -0.83%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) fell -0.69%.
US stock indexes fell on Monday ahead of major news later this week, including a delayed US economic report and Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. Shares got some underlying support from a +3% surge in Alphabet after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company.
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Markets await Nvidia’s earnings report after Wednesday’s close for more details on the AI outlook. Also, earnings from Walmart, Target and Home Depot this week will provide insight into the health of consumer spending.
This week’s US economic schedule is very heavy as there will be a flood of delayed economic reports. Tuesday brings the ADP weekly employment report, the NY Fed’s American Business Leaders Survey, industrial production, the November NAHB Housing Index, August factory orders and August durable goods orders. Wednesday brings MBA weekly mortgage applications, August trade balance and October FOMC meeting minutes. Thursday brings weekly unemployment claims, the September unemployment report, the Philadelphia Fed report, October existing home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Friday brings real earnings, S&P US manufacturing and services PMI reports, the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index and the Kansas City Fed’s services activity report. Other delayed US economic reports are also expected to be released in the coming days but have not yet been scheduled.
Monday’s economic news was supportive for stocks as the NovEmpire Manufacturing General Business Conditions Survey unexpectedly rose +8.0 to a 1-year high of 18.7, stronger than expected by a decline of 5.8.
Markets are ruling out a 41% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
Stocks were on the rise after Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday reiterated his call for a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, as he views the US labor market as close to “stagnation.” A noted dove, Mr. Waller is being considered by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires in May 2026.
Q3 corporate earnings season is coming to a close as 460 of the S&P 500 companies have released results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings beat forecasts for the best quarter since 2021. Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than double expectations of +7.2% y/y.
Foreign stock markets closed with a decline on Monday. Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.93%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell to a 1.5-week low and closed down -0.46%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.10%.
interest rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) rose +3 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -1.6bp to 4.133%. T-note prices rose slightly on speculation that long-delayed US economic news this week would show weakness in the economy and ease inflation pressures, allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. T-Notes were pushed lower by the news that the New Empire Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index unexpectedly hit a 1-year high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.
European government bond yields edged lower on Monday. The 10-year German Bund yield fell -0.7bp to 2.712%. UK 10-year gilt yields hit a 1-month high, but ended the day down -3.9bp at 4.535%.
The European Commission raised its 2025 eurozone GDP forecast to +1.3% from May’s forecast of +0.9% and kept its 2025 eurozone inflation forecast unchanged from May at +2.1%.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said financial stability risks “remain elevated given the uncertainty over geo-economic trends and the ultimate impact of tariffs in a volatile international environment.”
The swaps are giving a discount of -25% to a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.
US Stock Movers
Alphabet (GOOGL) was among the gainers on the Nasdaq 100, rising more than +3% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company. Tesla (TSLA) rose more than +1%. However, the other Great Seven stocks closed lower with Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and META (META) losing more than -1% each.
Amazon.com (AMZN) fell -0.8% after Bloomberg reported that the company plans to raise $12 billion from its first US bond sale in three years, suggesting intentions to accelerate spending on AI and other areas.
On Monday, almost all chip stocks closed with losses. Micron Technology (MU) was up more than +4% at the start of the session after Rosenblatt Securities raised its price target on the stock from $250 to $300, but then gave up those gains and ended the day down about -2%. Qualcomm (QCOM) closed down more than -4%. Marvell Technology (MRVL), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Align Technology (ALGN) all closed with losses of more than -3%.
Crypto stocks fell on Monday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) fell -3.5% to hit a 7-month low. Coinbase (COIN) fell more than -7%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) fell nearly -5%.
Zymeworks (ZYME) rose +29% and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) rose +21% after their collaboration on an experimental combination therapy for stomach and esophagus cancer reported topline results from a late-stage trial.
Rubrik (RBRK) fell -2.6%, even as Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform with a $97 price target.
Gap (GAP) fell -1.6%, even as Barclays upgraded the stock from equal weight to overweight with a $30 price target.
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) rose +2.8% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $166.
Aramark (ARMK) fell more than -5% after reporting Q4 revenue of $5.05 billion, weaker than the $5.17 billion consensus.
Dell Technologies (DELL) fell more than -8% to lead the S&P 500 losers after Morgan Stanley double-downgraded it from overweight to underweight with a $110 price target.
HP Enterprise (HPE) fell -7% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from overweight to equal weight.
Sealed Air Corp (SEE) fell more than -3% after Stifel downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
HP Inc. (HPQ) fell more than -6% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Underweight with a price target of $24.
Income Report(11/17/2025)
Aramark (ARMK), Helmreich & Payne Inc. (HP), i3 Vertical Inc. (IIIV), J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), LifeMD Inc. (LFMD), XP Inc. (XP).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here for more information.
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