March NY World Sugar #11 (SBH25) is today -0.01 (-0.05%) below, and March London is a white sugar #5 (SWH25) below -1.60 (-0.30%).
Sugar prices have left an initial advance today and decreased after Green Pool was estimated by commodity experts, the global Chinese market will transfer to the surplus of +2.7 MMT in 2025/26 crop year, in 2024/25 -3.7 MMT in 2024/25 Compared to the deficit of.
Sugar prices were initially higher today, in which NY Sugar posted 1 month high and London sugar at a height of 7-week. Centrum has declined in sugar production in India after the report on Tuesday that India’s 2024/25 sugar production was below 1 October to 31 January -12.2% Y/Y to 16.5 MMT.
The strength in Brazil’s real (^USDBRL) is also favorable for sugar prices as the real today climbed 2–1/2 months against the dollar. Strong real Brazilians discourage exports of exports from Chinese producers.
Sugar prices have long been long for a long time. On 21 January, NY Sugar gave the closest-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam-kam- Described at least. An improvement global Chinese supply approach is weighing on sugar prices. On January 20, India said it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT sugar this season, reducing the restrictions on sugar exports in 2023. India has banned sugar exports from October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supply. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT sugar from September 30 during the 2022/23 season after India allowed a record 11.1 mm export in the previous season.
On 21 November, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) reduced its 2024/25 global Chinese deficit forecast -2.51 MMT to reduce the -3.58 MMT compared to the August forecast of -3.58 MMT. The ISO extended its 2023/24 global Chinese surplus estimate to 1.31 MMT from August 200,000 Mount’s August launch.
The approach to high sugar production in Thailand is a slowdown for sugar prices. On 29 October, Thailand’s sugarcane and Chinese board office estimated that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production would jump from +18% y/y to 10.35 mmt. Thailand produced 8.77 MMT sugar in the 2023/24 season ending in April. Thailand is the third largest Chinese producer in the world and the second largest Chinese exporter.
Czarnikow cut its Thailand 2024/25 Chinese production estimate from 10.8 mmt from the previous forecast of 11.6 mmt.
Drought and excessive heat set fire to Brazil last year, causing damage to Chinese crops in Brazil’s top Chinese-producing state Sao Paulo. Sugarcane Industry Group Orplan said that more than 2,000 fire outbreaks of 80,000 hectares of sugarcane were affected in Sao Paulo. Green pool commodity experts said that the fire may have lost 5 mm sugarcane sugarcane. Brazil’s official crop forecasting agency Conb, cut its 2024/25 Brazil Chinese production estimate from the previous forecast of 46 MMT from the previous forecast of 44 MMT from 21 November, which cites low sugarcane yield due to drought and excessive heat Is. Unika said today that 2024/25 Center -South Chinese output is 39.794 mmt below in mid -January.
Chinese supports signs of small sugar production in India, which is the second largest producer in the world. ISM projects to demolish India’s 2024/25 Chinese production to -15% Y/Y at a 5 -year low of 27.27 mmt.
As an auxiliary factor for sugar prices, ISO estimated 2024/25 on August 30, 179.3 mm global sugar production, 181.3 mm from 181.3 mm in 2023/24.
The USDA released on November 21 in its two-year-old report, which estimates that the global 2024/25 sugar production +1.5% y/y will climb 186.619 mmt and the global 2024/25 will increase human sugar consumption + 1.2% y/y/y/y/y/y/y for a record 179.63 mmt. The USDA also estimated that 2024/25 Global Sugar Ending Stock -6.1% would fall from Y/Y to 45.427 mmt.
On the date of publication, Rich Esplond did not have the positions (either direct or indirectly) in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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