The coming week will bring a new test for major currency pairs as investors return from the US Independence Day holidays and continue to digest weak US labor market data. The US Dollar (USD)’s resilience will be tested by the release of the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and initial jobless claims.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 100.90 price zone and is set to end the week with a 0.50% loss. The greenback will now focus on the relatively light but important United States (US) calendar. Monday will bring the final S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Services PMI, while Tuesday’s trade balance and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will be important. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, the first under Chairman Kevin Wersh’s leadership, could provide an indication of whether policymakers remain committed to a restrictive stance.
US dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed today. The US dollar was the strongest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | gbp | JPY | scurvy | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.16% | 0.15% | -0.17% | -0.14% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.03% | 0.20% | 0.18% | -0.16% | -0.13% | 0.07% | |
| gbp | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.22% | 0.20% | -0.16% | -0.09% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.22% | -0.01% | -0.37% | -0.33% | -0.12% | |
| scurvy | -0.15% | -0.18% | -0.20% | 0.00% | -0.37% | -0.30% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.37% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.30% | -0.07% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.10% | 0.12% | 0.10% | -0.25% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows the percentage change of major currencies against each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select US Dollar from the left column and move to Japanese Yen along the horizontal line, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading higher near the 1.1440 level and will likely remain driven by the contradiction between soft US labor data and the cautious stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). Trade and industrial data from Germany and France will also be watched for signs of whether the recovery in activity may continue.
GBP/USD gained more than 1% this week, trading near 1.3350 and looks set to remain sensitive to the broader USD direction. If the FOMC minutes show concerns on the labor market, the pair may find support.
USD/JPY is trading near the 161.40 level after hitting a 40-year high of 162.84 earlier this week. The Japanese Yen could struggle if the US Dollar continues to rise, but soft US data could limit the pair’s gains if the market prices the Fed on a less restrictive path. Intervention risks may also remain in focus if USD/JPY remains near multi-decade highs.
AUD/USD trades near the 0.6940 price area and will keep an eye on China related sentiment and the broader USD trend. Aussie has recently received support from strong Australian PMI and resilient Chinese services activity.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is trading near $68.80 per barrel. Black gold will remain sensitive to supply expectations, geopolitical risks and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. The recent decline in oil prices toward pre-war levels has eased some inflation fears, but any change in supply guidance could reignite volatility in energy markets.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near the $4,175 level and gains could continue if US yields decline and Fed minutes strengthen expectations that the central bank may not keep policy restrictions in place for much longer. However, a strong US dollar rebound may limit the precious metal’s upside.
Economic perspective of hope: voices on the horizon
Monday, July 6
- Fed Governor Waller
- BOE values
- ECB’s Schnabel
- ecb president laggard
- ecb lane
Tuesday, July 7
Wednesday, July 8
Thursday, July 9
- BOE’s Breeden
- ecb president laggard
- ECB’s Cipollone
Friday, July 10
- ecb president laggard
- ECB’s Vujic
Central Bank meetings and policy decisions
The main policy decisions next week will be the RBNZ monetary policy review and OCR announcement on Wednesday, July 8, with an online media conference scheduled for later the same day. The FOMC minutes of the June 17 meeting will also be released on Wednesday, while the minutes of the ECB’s June policy meeting will be released on Thursday. The BoE financial stability report and FPC records will be published on Tuesday. There are no major interest rate decisions scheduled from the Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ, RBA, or BOC during the week.
