At the time of writing on Tuesday, Ripple (XRP) remains above $1.23, struggling amid limited gains. Despite the improvement in overall market sentiment driven by the news of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran to end the war in the Middle East, capital inflows are notably lower.
The official peace deal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, in which the US is expected to lift the naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has blocked global oil and gas supplies since the war began.
Institutional interest in XRP remained steady on Monday, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording light inflows of $2.82 million. According to SoSoValue, total assets under management have reached above $1 billion, while cumulative inflows stand at $1.44 billion.
Should demand remain subdued, the continued absence of significant capital flows through ETFs could continue to exert downward pressure on price performance.
XRP Futures OI has been slowly increasing, but remains quite low given the record $10.94 billion in Futures Open Interest (OI) in July. Coinglass data shows OI averaged $2.77 billion on Tuesday, up from $2.54 billion a day earlier.
The derivatives data also highlights the direct correlation between the derivatives market and XRP price, which could often increase the odds of an extended rebound unless retail demand increases.
XRP is hovering around $1.23 while it is under a bearish near-term bias as the price is below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.28, the 100-day EMA at $1.38 and the 200-day EMA at $1.58, consolidating a layered overhead supply zone.
A downward resistance trend line, with a key break level at around $1.32, further limits the recovery. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive on the daily chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 51, indicating a recovery but the bullish momentum is still fragile.
At the top, initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA around $1.28, followed by a trendline break level near $1.32. A sustained clearance from these barriers would be required to push the 100-day EMA around $1.38 and then the 200-day EMA around $1.58.
If supply exceeds demand, a fluctuation from current levels would cause XRP to reach a new low of $1.00 on the daily chart until new demand levels are established.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the help of AI tools.)
