Many times, I like to look at some charts and include a very simple chart like the following:
A Simple Daily Chart for a Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Oh, and that doesn’t mean I’m buying at the next possible touch point of price on that trend line. I like to see first. Too often I see how these types of charts can deceive others.
But before I think deeply about today and move on, what did we have yesterday? Yesterday’s pop was real; Today’s giveback is telling. On our daily futures chart, the price bounced off the rising red trendline on Friday, October 17, then rose about 4.12 percent yesterday, and is down more than 2 percent so far today. The bounce pierced the pitchfork you see on the chart and even surpassed the August low of 108,400, which keeps the buzz honest. My base case is that the market will want to retest that red line at some point; A subsequent move of liquidity closer to the 100,000 level would not be a surprise, especially as the June low of 99,500 sits at a level that many would defend.
A simple perspective that many algos and discretionary traders will track is the rising trend line marked in red. The price tagged it cleanly and bounced on the futures chart two trading sessions ago on Friday, October 17, 2025. After that retracement, it is reasonable to expect a return to test that line. If sellers apply pressure, market makers may attempt to drive liquidity around the 100,000 round number, which sits below the trend line and will surpass the rest of the stops. Also keep the 99,500 junction on the radar, as it is close to the June low and often attracts reactive flows.
Remember that technical analysis is not about one chart or one idea. The art is to know what others are seeing, even when those levels are later used to fake and stop them. The red trend line, the psychological 100,000, and the 99,500 pocket are three reference points that are likely to shape behavior in the next steps.
In broader terms, the performance is mixed, with one week minus 6.33 per cent, one month minus 7.36 per cent, three months minus 9.99 per cent, yet six months still plus 15.40 per cent, year to date plus 14.32 per cent, and one year plus 57.17 per cent. If you want background on the recent slide, check out our coverage on InvestingLive Bitcoin falls to four-month low, technical issues persist, and joins our follow-up Bitcoin trade idea, briefly, as bears regain control.
option color, read ibit
In iShares Bitcoin Trust Options, the implied volatility is 44.4 and the one-year percentage is 49, so it is about the middle range but rising. IV is 9.7 percent higher than its 20-day IV average of 40.4, and 20-day historical volatility is 13.6 percent higher than its 20-day IV average of 39.1. Translation; The options market is pricing in more volatility than we have experienced recently, although not at panic levels. This favors taking a little time and being selective when selling front week premium.
Strategy Notes for Options Users
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Range or two-way views, calendar and diagonal work well when the front maturity is lower IV than in previous months.
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Prefer directional but risk controlled, naked calls or debit spreads on these IV points.
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For hedgers with spot or micro futures, a simple collar on IBIT can ease the way while preserving participation.
Positioning Pulse for Crypto Now
The refreshing flow is cooling a touch; The latest twenty-four hour period volume decreased by 15.40 percent to approximately 54.15B, and the shorter twenty-four hour volume decreased by 10.74 percent to approximately 58.41B. Shorts are still larger than longs, which fits a cautious tone, yet both sides have reduced activity, often before testing close levels before the next committed leg.
According to TradeCompass, Ethereum traders may also consider lower key levels as Ethereum futures have also activated bearish range limits.
Trade Compass Map for Bitcoin Traders Today
Think of it as a map, not a prediction. Operate where the price accepts, not where it simply sells.
Bearish base below 109,250
That level sits close to the low of the September twenty-fifth value zone, which is a key line from the volume profile view. As long as futures remain under this, I consider the setup to be bearish with a way to manage risk and expectations.
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107,750, near the low of the October sixteenth price zone
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107,250
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106,700
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106,325, seventeenth October VWAP
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105,300
If the price passes those junctions and stays below, the red trendline retest comes into view; Liquidity subsequently moved to around 100,000, with 99,500 just above the June pivot, a realistic scenario.
Bullish option on continued strength above 110,000
If buyers take control and hold above 110,000, the path opens towards 111,500, then 112,450, then 113,000. Acceptance matters; A quick bounce is not enough.
Compass reminder for new readers: Consider thresholds as activation lines. If the price remains below the bearish line, the short setup is profitable. If it remains above the bullish line, longs profit. After reaching the second profit target, move the stop towards the entry to protect the profit and manage the runner.
Why it matters to crypto today and this week
Risk assets remained strong on Monday, with the Nasdaq rising about 1.28 percent, yet Bitcoin outperformed on the day and is now underperforming on the pullback. This mix often signals urgency from sellers active in crypto for the session, reinforcing the value of trading levels rather than single candle sentiment.
What Bitcoin Traders and Investors Need to Know
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The bounce has not been invalidated, yet failure to build above 109,250 keeps the bears in charge until proven otherwise.
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Options are pricing future movements slightly higher than recently realized fluctuations; Structure matters.
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Round numbers attract flow; Watch the behavior of pockets near 110,000 on the upside and 100,000 to 99,500 on the downside.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading and investing in the financial markets involves risk, and you should do your due diligence before making an investment decision.
