The November WTI crude oil (CLX25) closed on Friday +0.74 ( +1.14%), and the November RBOB Gasoline (RBX25) +0.0341 ( +1.74%) was closed.
Crude oil and gasoline prices rose rapidly on Friday, in which crude posted a high of 1.75 months. Concern over the supply of crude from Russia is increasing oil prices as President Trump suppresses countries to stop buying Russian crude in an attempt to push Russia to end their war in Ukraine. Friday’s weak dollar was also growing rapidly for raw prices, as well as a better US August personal expense report, indicating positive economic power that supports the demand for energy.
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In an effort to achieve Russia to end its war in Ukraine, President Trump is advocating the countries to stop buying Russian crude, which can limit global supply and is helpful to prices. Mr. Trump pressurized Turkey to stop buying oil from Russia and said he would ask Hungary to do so too.
Increase in Russian-Nato stresses is also increasing raw value. European diplomats said on Thursday that if further airship violations were detected, they are ready to shoot Russian aircraft.
Concerns in crude prices support that the ongoing war in Ukraine can lead to additional restrictions on Russian energy exports, which can reduce global oil supply. President Trump said he felt that NATO countries should shoot Russian aircraft who violated their airspace and reiterated the need for Europe to cut their energy purchases from Russia. The US proposed that the G7 ally impose up to 100% tariffs on China and India for the purchase of Russian oil in an attempt to convince Russia to end the war in Ukraine. In addition, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that he supports action by Western colleagues by Western colleagues to put pressure on Russia through secondary restrictions on Russian oil bought countries.
Ukraine has carried forward its attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is rapid to raw value as it curbs Russian raw exports and tightens the supply of global oil. Last Thursday, Ukraine attacked Russia’s Salawat and Volograd oil refineries, preventing about 300,000 BPD from refining capacity. Last Tuesday, Russia’s Transneft pipeline, which handles more than 80% of the country’s oil, prohibited the ability to store raw. In addition, Kirishi refinery, one of the largest refineries in Russia, which has an annual processing capacity of more than 20 million tonnes, prevented raw processing after damage from the Ukrainian drone attack. In addition, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged Russian oil infrastructure and crude-exporting hub along the Russia’s Baltic coast. Ukrainian drones and missile attacks on Russian refineries have inscribed Russia’s total refined-product flow in the first fifteen days of September at 1.94 million BPD, the lowest monthly average in 3.25 years.
The approach for high raw production in Iraq is expected to promote global oil supply, which is a slowdown for raw prices. Iraq announced on Monday that it had reached an agreement with the Regional Government of Kurdistan, which was resumed oil exports from the Kurdish region through a pipeline to Turkey, which was stopped due to a payment dispute for the last two years. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hussain said on Thursday that re -starting raw exports could supply 500,000 BPD fresh oil in global markets.
Demand for lower rawness from India, the world’s third largest crude oil importer, is negative for the price of oil after India’s August crude import -2.9% fell from Y/Y to 19.6 MMT.
There is a slowdown for oil prices on tankers to increase crude oil held worldwide. Vortexa said on Monday that the crude oil stored on the tankers which have been stable for at least seven days, became 74.18 million BBL from 14% W/W to 74.18 million in the week ended September 19.
Crude prices saw support on OPEC+ on 7 September, agreed to increase their crude production by 137,000 BPD starting in October. The growth was smaller than 547,000 BPD growth seen in September and August. OPEC+ stated that re -starting the remaining part of 1.66 million BPD raw production would be contingent on “developing market conditions”. OPEC + 2 is increasing the output to reversed a long production of 2 years, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million BPD of production by September 2026. OPEC August crude production +400,000 BPD increased to 28.55 million BPD, the highest in two years.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) As of September 19, the invention of American crude oil was -4.4% below the seasonal 5 -year average, (2) Gasoline invention was below -1.7% below the seasonal 5 -year average, and (3) distilled inventory 5 -year -year average -7.2%. In the week ended September 19, American crude oil production was posted below the record high of 12/631 million BPD, below 12/631 million BPD under 13.501 million BPD +0.1% w/W in a week of 12/6/2024.
Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of American oil rigs active in the week ended September 26 increased from +6 to 424 rigs, from August 1, above the 4-year low of 410 rigs. In the last 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen rapidly at the 5.5-year high of the 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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