Market:
- Gold $ 60 to $ $ 2977
- US 10 years yield is 4.20% from 21 BPS
- S&P 500 below 0.2%
- WTI crude oil below $ 1.00 to $ 60.97
- USD Leeds, GBP Lags
It was a wild.
All the things of a ‘Black Mande’ are scared quickly and equity futures fell to 5% in the US after some brutal sales in Asia. The start of US trading had some slight better feelings, but margin calls were hit and good sales when the market opened, although not for pre-market climb.
In the broad market, there is an understanding that if Trump delays some tariffs set to hit at the end of US Day on Tuesday, risk assets can be spared. The widely furnished accounts on Twitter exploded with a tweet with a tweet, claiming that Kevin Haset talked about the 90-day stagnation. This caused +7% swing in the stock markets, although the moves in FX were very small.
The reports were rejected in about 10 minutes and the shares fell again, but not all the ways for the earlier climb. Despite this, there was some speculation about better news. Both worrisome and potentially positive were messages about Trump’s high China tariff – something that would take them above 100%.
It was a matter of conversation with others buried. Some people later said that Trump has never signed anything about China’s tariff like an executive order, so we will see where the collision is soon prominent.
Later, Besant confirmed the conversation with Japan and Netanyahu, talking about bringing things to Trump quickly when reduced tariff barriers.
For now, my understanding is that the US will allow the scheduled tariffs to be and then will interact to remove them but here is clearly some space for the conversation. I also feel that many people in the market are pushing some positive expected news in the coming days around the tariff. The common thinking is: Why would Trump delay the tariff by April 9, without any reason?
In FX, the US dollar rebound largely and the growth of treasury yields 12–25 was a major reason. Some of them may be optimized about a tariff walk-back, or pessimism about fiscal deficit, but forcibly there is a lot of sale, especially as a high yielding loan struggles.
With most of the market action on Monday, you understood that equity and fixed-incompatible/FX are currently in different worlds. The latter wins. The US dollar is widely strong so that you can read that some optimism on business/growth and that the fed fed futures came up with rate deduction possibilities, falling from high year to 105 bps as 125 BPS.
All this to say that when you try and return all factors, it is a market that is waiting for the headlines more than guessing them. There is also a lively debate about how irreversible damage is already causing.
