latest US CPI report inflation is still shown Running 100 basis points above the Fed’s 2% targetwith both Headline and core reading at 3.0%Nevertheless, since he was Slightly below 3.1% consensusTraders saw this as a minor relief. data helped reinforce expectations He Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points At next Wednesday’s meeting.
During this time, Shares extended their rallyWith earnings coming in the first two weeks of the season much better than expectednext week’s issue is peak of earnings seasonwith heavyweight Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Boeing, Chipotle, ServiceNow, ExxonMobil and Chevron All set to report. As investors condition ahead of those results, FOMO is clearly setting inand this The major indexes – the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq – are closing at new record highs.,
But it’s not all rainbows and unicorns. below the surface, geopolitical tensions And domestic impasse Major risks remain. us government shutdown The crisis continues, although traders are largely hopeful that it will be resolved without lasting economic damage.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump fiercely targets Ontario On a local advertising campaign criticizing the tariff, suddenly Ending US-Canada trade talksbefore later saying he would meet with Canadian Prime Minister Carney in Sou next week. Korea. US-China trade conflict With Trump preparing to impose, it also flared up again 155% tariff effective from November 1 – effectively a Trade sanctions – and China stepping back from supplying rare earths and buying US soybeansThe last time such threats were made, both countries eventually reached a compromise; The markets are expecting speculation again.
relationship with Russia It also kept getting sour. Trump imposed New sanctions on Russian oil subsidiariesI am sending Crude oil prices rose sharply this week (7.25% higher this week)Moscow appeared unfazed – a Russian envoy suggested that “various forces, primarily the UK and Europe, are trying to derail direct talks between Putin and Trump.” This kind of rhetoric and blame game – away from Trump – could encourage Trump to play the “hero” card Putin will no doubt like (and once again be likely to fire as he did in Alaska).
Markets remain intact despite political noise focused on the short termassuming that Washington will reopen, US-China talks will find common groundAnd energy markets will stabilizeHowever, how long Russia can endure the economic pressure remains an open question.
Keep an eye on the closing levels of US stocks:
- The Dow Industrial Average rose 1.01% and 2.2% for the week
- The S&P index rose 0.79% and 1.92% during the week
- The Nasdaq index rose 1.15% and 2.31% for the week.
Looking at the US debt market, the 10-year rate closed at 4.01% last week and is currently trading at 3.998%. The 2-year yield is at 3.479% after closing at 3.464% last week.
The price of crude oil is down -$0.39 on the day but up 7.2% for the week.
Gold has declined for the first time since the week of August 11. The price fell by -3.32% this week. Today the price was down -0.44%. This was also the first week of decline in silver prices since August 11 and the worst week since the end of March. The price fell by -6.22% this week.
USD was mostly higher barring decline after CPI data.
Changes in USD versus major currencies showed:
- Euro -0.02%
- JPY +0.18%
- GBP +0.14%
- CHF +0.05%
- CAD +0.04%
- AUD +0.03%
- NZD +0.09%.
