USD is closing mixed today after strong Canadian GDP data and USD is rising the most against CAD. USDCAD fell -0.93% and closed above its 100 and 200-day MA and below the 1.3900 level (see technical post here).
USD was also lower against AUD (-0.44%). As for that currency pair, it rose about 1.4% this week – the biggest mover for the week (see post here).
Other changes against major currencies were more modest that day:
- EUR: unchanged
- GBP -0.01%
- CHF +0.11%
- NZD -0.23%
As mentioned, Canada released a stronger-than-expected jobs report in November 53.6K employment benefits vs a Expected to fall to -5.0KAfter +66.6K in October. Unemployment rate fell to 6.5%7.0%, well below forecast, although partly helped by the decline Participation rate 65.1% From 65.3%. The composition was mixed: Full-time employment declined by 9.4KWhereas Part-time jobs increased by 63.0KDown from 85.1K last month. Salary hike for permanent employees remained stable 4.0% year-on-yearAfter months of contradictory signals – weak data in July/August followed by a strong print in September/October – this report offers a decisive upside surprise, showing unemployment falling sharply and contrary to expectations of labour-market cooling, Since the Bank of Canada is already signaling a pause, today’s data raises the possibility of renewed tightening discussions and could prove to be a Game-changer for the Canadian dollarThe move below the 100/200 day moving average increased the bearish bias,
In America, American personal income increased 0.4% in SeptemberWhile beating expectations by 0.3% Personal consumption increased 0.3%Match forecast. Headline PCE inflation rose 0.3%keeping YoY rate 2.8%This is its highest level in a year. core pceFed’s preferred inflation gauge increased 0.2% per monthwith Annual rate remains at 2.8%Slightly below the expected 2.9%. Excluding food, energy and housing, PCE increased 0.2%Unchanged from last month. total expenses increased $65.1 billionhighly driven by a $63.0B increase in services And $2.1B in merchandiseThis shows that consumer demand has remained stable despite rising inflation.
The early December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased 53.352.0 Beating Expectations and Improving Rapidly 50.3 First. current conditions the ingredient became a little soft 51.0 (vs. 51.3 expected and 52.3 prior), while expectations jumped for 52.1 (vs. 51.2 expected and 49.0 prior), indicating improved forward-looking sentiment. Inflation expectations declined significantly: One-year inflation fell to 4.1% from 4.7%And Five-year inflation declined to 3.2% from 3.6%While the limitations of the UMIC survey are known, the Fed still watches it closely, and represents a downward revision in inflation expectations, Clear green light for possible rate cut-A growth equity market generally welcomes.
Looking at the US stock market, the major indices ended the week mostly higher:
- Dow Industrial Average +0.22%
- S&P Index +0.19%
- NASDAQ Index +0.31%
For the trading week:
- Dow Industrial Average but 0.50%
- S&P Index +0.19%
- NASDAQ Index +0.91%
Yields in the US debt market were high
- 2-year yield 3.562%, +3.4 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.714%, +3.2 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.139%, +3.1 basis points
- 30 Year Yield 4.794%, +3.1 basis points
Look at other markets:
- Crude oil rose $0.47 or 0.79% to $60.14
- Gold fell $10.46 or -0.25% to $4197.45
- Silver rose $1.19, 2.10% to $58.29
- Bitcoin is back at $89,022 with a loss of $-3084 today.
