Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad on Friday evening to begin a long-delayed second round of talks with the US, and special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner are due to arrive on Saturday morning. The optics point to a breakthrough, but the headlines suggest the substance is thin.
Both sides have left their key negotiators at home, with Tehran passing its peace terms through Pakistani mediators rather than handing them over directly, and Araghchi’s further stops in Muscat and Moscow reviving a standing Russian offer to take over 450 kilograms of Iran’s enriched uranium reserves, an offer President Donald Trump has already rejected once. The question over the weekend is not what will come out of these talks, but whether these are really talks.
Choreography without counterparts
White House Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt confirmed the US visit on Fox News and described it as direct talks mediated by Pakistan. He did not take into account that Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation during the April 11-12 visit, was staying at home. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, whom the White House views as Vance’s counterpart, is also absent. Both sides have canceled the meeting of their chief negotiators, which is not the way governments behave when there is no agreement.
Tehran’s carefully unacceptable pitch
Iran’s state news agency IRNA described the visit as completely bilateral. Araghchi reiterated the framing on the X with the line “Our neighbors are our priority.” Reuters reports that Tehran will hand over its peace terms to Pakistani mediators for the US to pursue, maintaining the fiction that no direct sessions are taking place. This is useful cover at home, where any public concession to Washington is political poison, especially for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) faction that backed Ghalibaf in April.
moscow card
The part of the tour that Washington should focus on is the Russia leg. Iran has about 450 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium, which can be converted to weapons grade in a matter of weeks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly confirmed that Russia’s proposal to take custody, which was first proposed by President Vladimir Putin in March and rejected by President Donald Trump, remains open. Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev said this month that Moscow was ready to assist. A Russian transfer removes the casus belli without a US-branded surrender.
Why didn’t Trump say no, and why didn’t the problem go away?
Trump rejected the March offer on the grounds of leverage. Handing over weapons-grade uranium to Moscow would be a strategic gift at a time when Washington is fighting Ukraine, and Trump has acknowledged that Russia is aiding Iran in the war. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said this week that Washington had a number of options, including a voluntary Iranian surrender, but Tehran’s State Ministry has already declared its uranium as sacred. Washington wants reserves to be safe, and not just in Russia.
what to watch this weekend
Saturday’s session is unlikely to yield any public breakthrough. Pakistani mediators will try to bridge the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and relief from sanctions, taking Araghchi’s proposal as a starting point. If he flies to Moscow on Monday with an empty briefcase, the Russian path is faster and the oil risk premium remains high. If he leaves Islamabad with a framework, the ceasefire stands. The resumption of talks currently looks like a phased exchange without key negotiators, and Iran’s withdrawal option sitting on a tarmac in Moscow.
