There has been a dramatic change in Lebanon’s political landscape with the election of Joseph Aoun as President. After more than two years of political deadlock, the Lebanese parliament on Thursday elected the army commander with 99 votes out of 128.
Aoun’s election represents a significant achievement for the anti-Hezbollah camp, reflecting the weakening influence of the powerful Shia militant organization within the Lebanese political system. Despite this, experts say Hezbollah remains a formidable force in the country, and Aoun faces challenges in balancing Lebanon’s internal politics and foreign relations.
Over the past two years, Hezbollah worked tirelessly to prevent any movement toward the election of a new president. The group had strongly opposed Aoun’s candidacy. However, as the political situation evolved and the issue of ousting Assad from Syria came to the fore, Hezbollah was eventually forced to accept Aoun, who assumed the presidency.
“Hezbollah had been opposing his election for the last two and a half years and they had blocked any process of choosing a president for that entire time. Now, they have voted for him in the second round, which indicates that they They are constrained, that they are weak, and their leverage is not what it was,” Paul Salem, vice president of international engagement at the Middle East Institute, told Fox News Digital.
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Newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews an honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese parliament to be sworn in as the new president in Beirut on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussain Malla)
Salem points to broader changes in regional politics, particularly the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, which has left Hezbollah increasingly isolated. “They are now not only cut off from Iran, but they are also isolated in the region. They are the only Shia community between here and Basra, and this is the Sunni takeover of Damascus, which is dominated by a friendly Alawite “This is a major historical change that has deeply alienated Shiites and Hezbollah,” he said.
The US and Israel, along with other Western and Arab powers, have long been trying to move Lebanon away from Hezbollah’s influence, and Aoun’s election could be a step in that direction.
Aoun, a Maronite Christian and commander of the Lebanese army, took office with a strong message focused on Lebanon’s sovereignty. In his inaugural address he stressed the need for the state to have a monopoly on the use of force.
David Schenker, former head of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the US State Department under the first Trump administration, commented that Aoun’s speech was a positive and practical step forward for Lebanon. “He talked about disarming all groups and making sure the weapons were under state control,” Schenker said. “This was a good step, because it shows a commitment to sovereignty and the rule of law.”
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An updated graphic detailing members of Hezbollah’s leadership who have been eliminated by Israeli Defense Forces. (IDF Spokesperson Unit)
However, Schenker, who is currently the Taub Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, cautioned that Aoun’s position as president does not grant him absolute power in Lebanon’s political system. . “The presidency is not the most powerful position in Lebanon. The key position will be that of the prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Aoun will show the same courage in his new role as he did as chief of staff,” Schenker said.
Although Hezbollah has been weakened militarily by recent Israeli operations and the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, among other prominent leaders, it still retains significant influence, particularly in southern Lebanon. However, Schenker says the organization’s ability to intimidate the Lebanese population is diminishing. “Hezbollah is no longer the force it once was. It can still reactivate its killing machine if needed, but it is no longer as dominant as before,” he said.
“Hezbollah has calculated that they’ve lost this battle against Israel, and then they’ve lost another battle in Syria. So their interest now is to remain calm, to have a president and a government that is good for America and the region. Be acceptable, which, at the end of the day, they hope will protect them from any further Israeli incursions and help their people,” Salem explained. “They need a functioning government to ensure international aid for the millions of people displaced by their actions in southern Lebanon. It is about their survival not only politically, but also economically.”
Hezbollah militants form a human barrier during the funeral procession for slain top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in the southern suburbs of Beirut, August 1, 2024. (Photo by Khaled Dessouki/AFP via Getty Images)
Aoun’s election is important not only for Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon, but also for the country’s relations with external powers such as the US and Israel. Lebanon has suffered economic collapse, with its currency devalued by more than 99%, and approximately 80% of the population now living below the poverty line. Hezbollah’s previous resistance to international pressure now seems less rational.
The US has long supported the Lebanese military and is expected to strengthen its ties with Aoun given its role in the military and its pro-sovereignty stance. Schenker said Lebanon’s future alliance with regional allies such as the US and Saudi Arabia could provide the country with much-needed international support.
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Lebanon’s cabinet ministers stand at the helm applauding newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun as he delivers his first speech to parliament after being sworn in as president in Beirut, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussain Malla)
“The U.S. military has been close to the Lebanese army for many years,” Salem told Fox News Digital. “He has been the strongest link between the US and Lebanon. So to bring the head of the army to power, he is a well-known figure in Washington. He is well-known to the military, and now, he is well-known to diplomats and politicians. is known, and over time President Trump and others will know. This realignment could put Lebanon on a more natural path of cooperation with the US, Saudi Arabia, and other regional allies.”
Israel will also keep a close eye on Aoun’s presidency. Schenker said Aoun’s commitment to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for disarmament in southern Lebanon, could lead to a more cooperative stance toward Israel from Lebanon. “Israel will be invested in Lebanon’s implementation of 1701,” Schenker said. “Aoun’s stance will influence Israel’s position toward Lebanon, as the Trump administration has clearly signaled a desire to end wars in the region.”
