- Mexican Peso set economic flexibility as stunning markets for 0.89% weekly benefits.
- Trump’s mixed tariff comments solve volatility, but risk hunger increases market currencies.
- Traders release Mexico’s Q1 GDP to gauge the risks of recession next week.
Mexican Peso enhanced its profit against the US dollar for the second consecutive day, which is ready to end the week with a profit of 0.89%, which is sponsored by improving risk appetite and improving better-preferred Mexico economic data. At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades down 0.32%at 19.52.
Wall Street closed with profit in Friday session, even though US President Donald Trump made contradictory remarks about China. Non -night news for American traders revealed Beijing’s desire to reduce tariffs on American products. Despite this, Trump said that he would not reduce the tariff until “he gives us anything enough.”
The Instituteo National Day Estodistic Giographer E Informatica (INEGI) revealed that the Mexican economy increased in February, unlike the forecast, which was expected to have a moderate expansion.
Meanwhile, in the United States, the April Consumer Affairs Index of the University of Michigan (UOM) deteriorated rapidly, posting its fourth lowest reading from the late 1970s, a sign that Americans became suspicious of the economic approach.
Therefore, USD/MXN inspired the data of lower, good Mexico. However, next week, the GDP (GDP) will release the growth rate for the first quarter of Inegi 2025. A negative reading will confirm that the economy is in a technical recession.
Daily digest market mover
- The deviation between Banxxico and Fed is more reverse in USD/MXN. The Governing Council of Bannsico expressed its decision to reduce the policy. In contrast, the fed is considered cautious, as some authorities have shown concerns about the recurrence of inflation induced by tariffs.
- Mexico’s economic activity expanded by 1% mother in February, above the forecast for an increase of 0.6%. On an annual basis, activity drowned from 0% to -0.7%, better than expected.
- Economic data revealed during the week saw a re -assumption on inflation in the first half of April, Ingi revealed. Retail sales in February were less than expected, showing the ongoing economic recession.
- Bannico Deputy Governor Omar Mejia Castelazo revealed that the economy has been undergoing recession since Q4 2023, he said in Washington.
- Survey of City Mexico shows that economists hope that the Bannico will be cut in the May meeting of 50 basis points. For the whole year, they project to terminate the main reference rate near 7.75%.
- Regarding the USD/MXN exchange rate, private analysts see the foreign pair from 20.93 to 20.93. In 2025 inflation is estimated to end with 3.80% at 3.78% with 3.80%, which is aligned with the previous survey.
- Mexico’s economy is expected to grow 0.2% in 2025, below 0.3% in the pre -survey.
USD/MXN Technical Outlook: Mexican Peso remains rapid as USD/MXN, remains below the major technical level
Price action suggests that the USD/MXN bearly biased and may continue its downtrend, once the daily closure from 19.50. In that result, the next support will be less than 23 less of 19.46, the current year-on-year-Tarikh (YTD), followed by a 19.00 psychological figure.
If buyers want to push prices more, they will have to recover the 200-day SMA at 19.93, followed by 20.00 figures. Violation of the latter will expose the confluence of the high and 50-day SMA of April 14 before testing the 100-day SMA at 20.25-20.29.
Mexican peso FAQ
Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most trading currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the demonstration of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank policy, the volume of foreign investment in the country and the level of remittances sent by the Mexico dwellers, which live abroad, especially in the United States. Geophysical trends can also move MXN: For example, some firms decide the decision -making process to transfer manufacturing capacity and supply chains close to their domestic countries – the process of deciding by some firms – is also seen as a catalyst for Mexican currency as the country is considered a major manufacturing center in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is oil prices as Mexico is a major exporter of commodity.
The main objective of the Central Bank of Mexico, also known as Bannico, maintains inflation at low and stable levels (close to its target of 3%or close to a tolerance band between 2%and 4%, in the middle point). To end this, the bank determines a reasonable level of interest rates. When inflation is very high, Banusico will try to increase the interest rates to control it, making it more expensive to borrow money for homes and businesses, thus the demand for cooling and cooling the overall economy. High interest rates for Mexican peso (MXN) are usually positive because they cause high yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. Conversely, the low interest rate weakens MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are important for assessing the status of the economy and can affect the Mexican peso (MXN) evaluation. A strong Mexican economy is good for MXN based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence. Not only does it attract more foreign investment, but it can encourage the Bank of Mexico to increase interest rates, especially if this strength comes with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate depreciation.
As an emerging market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) goes to strive during the risk-period, or when investors feel that broad market risks are low and thus eager to engage with investments that take a high risk. In contrast, MXN weakens in the time of market disturbance or economic uncertainty as investors do to sell high-risk property and escape for more safe havens.
