- Sun:OPEC-8 meeting
- Mon: South Korean preliminary trade balance (November), Chinese Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI final (November), EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI final (November), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (November), South Korean CPI (November)
- Fortunate: EZ Flash CPI (November), South Korean GDP revised (Q3)
- Mercury: Australian Real GDP (Q3), Chinese Ratingdog Services/Composite PMI Final (November), EZ/UK/US Services/Composite PMI Final (November), Swiss CPI (November), US ISM Services PMI (November)
- Teacher: Swedish CPIF (November), Easy Retail Sales (October), US Challenger Layoffs (November)
- Vesper: RBI Announcement, German Industrial Orders (October), EZ Employment Final (Q3), EZ GDP Revised (Q3), Canadian Jobs Report (November), US PCE (September), US University of Michigan Preliminary (December)
potential fed chair pick,
Treasury Secretary Besant is interviewing candidates to replace Fed Chair Powell around Thanksgiving, saying there is a strong possibility Trump will appoint a new Fed chair before Christmas. Powell’s term expires in May 2026, and the shortlist includes NEC Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Wersh, BlackRock CEO Ryder and current Fed Governors Waller and Bowman. Bloomberg reported that Hassett was seen as the front-runner, although the White House said this claim was speculative. News that Hassett was the favorite caused a notable steepening of the Treasury curve as the frontrunners reacted to the prospect of a more dovish Fed. Hassett is a close ally of US President Trump and shares his dovish stance on rates, although their closeness raises questions about the Fed’s independence. Concerns over independence push long-term yields higher as investors demand higher term premiums on government debt. The appointment of Waller or Bowman would ease such concerns, given that both already serve on the Fed board.
OPEC-8 meeting (Sunday),
OPEC-8 is expected to keep production levels unchanged at Sunday’s online meeting, according to Reuters sources. The group is reportedly set to focus discussions on long-term issues, such as assessing members’ maximum production capacity to establish a 2027 output baseline. The debate highlights tensions between members seeking higher quotas despite limited spare capacity, and the UAE, which retains substantial unused production capacity. The alliance had earlier put production increases on hold for Q1 2026 after gradually reducing about 6 million bpd of voluntary cuts made in previous years. No policy adjustments are expected on Sunday, with OPEC+ instead prioritizing consensus on future capacity metrics.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday):
As a basis for comparison, PMI data from S&P Global shows the headline manufacturing PMI falling to a four-month low of 51.9 (from 52.5), and the output index falling to a two-month low of 53.6 (from 53.7). The report said companies reported a significant slowdown in new order gains, including a fifth consecutive monthly decline in export orders, raising the risk of a decline in output. Finished goods inventories again rose to the largest extent in the 18-year history of the survey, reflecting an unprecedented increase in unsold stocks. S&P said input purchases declined for the first time since April, while suppliers’ delivery times extended for the third month. Input price inflation in the manufacturing sector fell to its lowest since February but remains above recent averages, and selling price inflation has slowed. Elsewhere, employment rose at the fastest rate in three months.
US ISM Services PMI (Wednesday):
As a basis for comparison, PMI data from S&P Global shows that the headline services PMI rose to 55.0 (from 54.8), a four-month high. It said services posted the strongest output gains since July and the biggest increase in new business so far this year. Input costs rose at the fastest rate since January 2023, driven mainly by tariffs and higher wage rates, and selling price inflation accelerated again. Job creation in the services sector remained modest and slower than in October due to cost-related budget pressures and a focus on efficiency. Business expectations rose to an 11-month high as political concerns eased and the government shutdown ended.
Australian real GDP (Wednesday),
There are currently no expectations for Q3 GDP, which will be released by the ABS on December 3. Growth is widely expected to slow to 0.6% Q/Q in the second quarter. However, the 6.4% q/q increase in private capital expenditure suggests that business investment may provide an offset. The desk says per capita GDP is likely to continue to decline, indicating a sustained “per capita recession”. The RBA is expected to monitor the release closely, although current market pricing makes a rate cut or hike unlikely until 2026.
Swiss CPI (Wednesday),
The October release was much cooler than market expectations of 0.1% Y/Y (exp. 0.3%) and cooler than the SNB’s Q4 average forecast of 0.4%. A print that created pressure in the CHF and kept alive the speculation of a move back to NIRP. However, the chances of a cut at this time are less than 5%. The November release will be tested to see whether the SNB’s view that inflation is likely to rise in the coming quarters, as stated in its September forecasts and more recently by Tschudin, proves correct. If that happens, the story that the SNB is at terminal will persist. If not, and inflation continues to moderate, a move into NIRP cannot be ruled out, although the primary tool for the SNB at this stage is FX intervention, especially given recent comments from various officials. Tschudin said interest rates are “where they should be” and Chairman Schlegel reiterated his willingness to intervene as needed, and that the bar for NIRP is higher than normal cuts.
EZ Flash HICP (Guru),
October’s data came in at 2.1% as expected, while core and super-core were above consensus and services rose to 3.4% (previous 3.2%). In the flash/preliminary study so far for November, France’s HICP Y/Y was cooler than expected, while Spain was slightly warmer than expected. The November PMI showed a further acceleration in services sector inflation, although selling price inflation in the sector has slowed and potentially offset. The HCOB wrote at the time that there was “no reason to tighten monetary policy” and that it “expected interest rates to remain unchanged in December”. Since then, ECB Vice President De Guindos said progress was being made on both services and wage inflation, although Chief Economist Lane commented that they needed a slowdown in non-energy price growth to keep inflation consistently around target. Overall, the narrative remains that the ECB is at terminal, with changes to the November HICP unlikely, and the next point of focus is the December forecast round, covering 2028. On that, Kazakhs said the focus should really be on 2026 and 2027 inflation, while Makhlouf commented that the new projections are unlikely to change the view that policy is fine where it is. The October minutes emphasized that they would get projections for 2028 for the first time, but that the impact of policy on that horizon is low, suggesting a greater weighting on the near-term outlook.
Canadian Jobs Report (Fri),
The previous jobs report for October was strong. Headline employment rose from 60.4k to 66.6k, well ahead of the forecast by -2.5k. The gain was driven by an 85k increase in part-time roles, while full-time employment declined by 18.5k. Yet, contrary to expectations of no change, the unemployment rate fell from 7.1% to 6.9%. The strong report had little impact on BOC rate expectations. The BOC is at the low end of its neutral rate forecast and has said policy is broadly appropriate, with further easing unlikely unless the economy weakens further. The bank said structural damage from the trade conflict limits the role of monetary policy in supporting demand while keeping inflation low, suggesting that further rate adjustments would see limited impact. Continued labor-market deterioration due to US trade tensions will likely force the BoC to act again, provided inflation remains close to target. The money market has softened by about 15 bps in July 2026, which means there is a 60% chance of a further reduction of 25 bps.
US PCE (Fri):
The government shutdown has pushed the September PCE and personal income/expense reports to December 5. September CPI showed headline inflation at 0.3% m/m (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.4%); On an absolute basis, CPI increased by 0.31% m/m (previous 0.382%). Core CPI increased by 0.2% m/m (exp. 0.3%, previous 0.3%) or 0.227% unrounded (previous 0.346%). September PPI rose 0.3% m/m (exp. 0.3%, previous -0.1%), bringing the annual rate to 2.7% y/y (exp. 2.7%, previous 2.6%). Ex-food and energy, PPI increased 0.1% m/m (exp. 0.2%, previous -0.1%), and the annual rate eased to 2.6% y/y (exp. 2.7%, previous 2.8%). Within the PPI components included in the PCE, airline passenger services boomed, portfolio management declined, home and health hospice care boomed, hospital outpatient care declined, and nursing home care rose sharply. Pantheon Macroeconomics said relevant CPI and PPI components reflect a monthly PCE increase, which is slowing commodity inflation and distributors absorbing tariff costs, thereby curbing pass-through. It estimates the core PCE deflator will increase by about 0.22% m/m in September, bringing the annual rate to 2.9% y/y. Its analysts say inflation risks are tilted to the downside, citing softening of commodity prices and retailers, especially auto dealers, absorbing tariffs, while underlying services inflation remains subdued. They point out that PPI services excluding volatile components grew only 0.1% m/m and about 2.5% y/y. Pantheon says core commodities PPI inflation has likely peaked and broader cost pressures from oil, shipping and global food prices have weakened. The consultancy argues the data strengthens the case for more Fed easing. He expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 bps at its December 10 meeting and will see another 75 bps cut next year. It says inflation is below expectations, while labor-market risks dominate, with surveys pointing to weak payroll growth and rising unemployment – a combination it says should prompt the FOMC to provide more support. Market expectations of a December cut were boosted by comments from the Fed’s Williams last week, who said the central bank had room for another adjustment in the “near term.” His comments add to the softer signals from Governors Waller and Miron, who have also argued for lower rates. At the time of writing, CME’s FedWatch tool shows an 85% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25bps to 3.50-3.75% in December.
This article originally appeared on NewsQuotes.
