- Mon: Japanese Industrial Output (May), Chinese official PMI (June), German Retail Sales (May), German/Italian Prelim CPI (June)
- Fortunate,
- Mercury: NBP policy declaration; US Challenger Sorting (June), ADP (June), Easy Unemployment (May)
- Teacher,
- Vesper: Swiss unemployment (June), German Industrial Order (May), Easy Manufacturer Prices (May); July 4 – Closed early
Chinese official PMIS (Mon),
China will release its official June PMI on Monday, see if the desk has recently begun to filter through tariff cuts and stabilization in external conditions. ING hopes that manufacturing will remain in PMI contraction, but grow to 49.8 (prev. 49.5), while non-manufactured gauges are roughly seen unchanged. No market consent is available at the time of writing. New export orders will be in meditation amidst sub-Index recent policy support and spontaneity in trading stresses. The desk note that the feeling of the headline may be stable, comprehensive recovery signs remain temporary. Caixin PMIS follows later in the week.
Ez CPI (TU),
Expectations are to reduce the headline y/y hicp to 1.9% and core HICP from 2.4% to 2.3%. As a reminder, inflation figures saw Y/Y HICP from 2.2% to 1.9% (below the target for the first time since September 2024). Core inflation dropped from 2.7% to 2.4%, while the services inflation was 3.7% from 4.0%. This time, analysts of Investake expect another moderation under price pressures. The desk hopes that the headline and core HICP inflation have seen a decline of 0.1PPT, with the annual rate to 1.8% and 2.2% respectively. Investec notes that “the factors behind it include services as well as the food price inflation includes another moderation, although we think it may be slightly offset by movements in energy and goods prices”. Beyond the Easy-Wide release, the French HICP y/y/y/y 0.6% (exp. 0.7%) and Spanish HICP Y/Y/Y 2.0% (exp. 2.0%) to 2.2% increased. From the perspective of a policy, given the praise going on in the EUR, a soft release can increase the call for ECB this year to increase the call, with markets until February 2026, perfectly not to give a price of another 25bps deficiency. However, markets can take more impatts from the trade front with the latest comments from the US Commerce Secretary Lutynic.
Boj tank survey (tue),
Before the implementation of the new American auto tariff in the BOJ’s June Tankan survey, the major belief gauge is expected to show a slight decline in the trade spirit between the two big manufacturers and the non-producer. 15 According to estimates compiled by private forecasters, and quoted by Japanese press GG, the spread index of large manufacturers is seen to be easy for +10 (prev. +12), as global business weighs on headwind outlook from stress. Analysts note that recent mutual tariffs, especially from Trump administration, have cloudy external demand photographs, marked as auto and related areas as the weakest. In favor of services, emotion is expected to be more flexible, less than solid domestic demand and stable labor conditions. Recently, in terms of trade comment, Japanese Economy Minister Akajawa said this week that Japan will continue tariff dialogue with the US with additional mutual tariffs on July 9, but 25% cannot accept auto tariffs.
Us ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tue),
As a comparison, the US manufacturing activity remained stable in June, unchanged with flash manufacturing PMI at 52.0, matched the 15 -month high of May. S&P Global said the factory output increased for the first time since February and the new order growth remained flexible. Increased input purchases, while driving the fastest inventory accumulation in three years, is often associated with tariff concerns. Employment increased at the strongest pace in a year, contributed positively to PMI, while the backlog increased for the first time since September 2022. The price pressure rapidly intensified, however, input and output prices rise at the fastest speed since July 2022, most firms attributed high costs to tariffs. The manufacturers passed these costs to customers, increasing the concerns of inflation. S&P stated that data indicates domestic demand and close-term construction power supported by inventory building, but it can be temporary. Export orders slipped and inventory could be promoted. The elevated value pressure suggests a large extent tariff-powered, ongoing inflation risks. For example, FED policy is likely to be vigilant with very little justification for cutting the imminent rate.
Swiss CPI (Thu),
The June figure found in May -0.1% Y/Y print follows, a negative reed that was mainly attributed to energy prices and tourism development. For example, SNB reduced its short-term inflation forecasts (where 25bps cut was 0.00%), Q2-2025’s forecasts to 0.0% (Prev. 0.3%) in the June meeting. As a reminder, May figure was -0.1% and 0.0% of April and as SNB would require up -zero prints for its Q2 average forecast; A print that is possible that recently reads the energy inverted and hot-to-intake from France and Spain, for example, in the same period. For SNB, to see if their decisions to go up to 0.0% instead of NIRP were the right steps. However, of course, SNB still has several months to go to the September announcement.
US NFP (Thu),
Due to the US Nonform payroll Independence Day market holidays, it is going to be released on Thursday instead of normal Friday. The US economy is expected to add 129k nonform payroll in June (Prev. 139k; 3 months average 135k, an average of 6 months, 157k, and 12 months average of 144K). The unemployment rate is expected to be up to 4.2% (note: Fed has estimated an increase by 4.5% by the end of this year). The rate of income per hour is expected to be cold from +0.4% to +0.3% m/m in May, while the average workweek is seen to be unchanged at 34.3hrs. At its post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Powell said that the labor market remains solid, only one accepts “very, very slow constant cooling” which he does not see as disturbing; Powell cited strong employment generation and participation of labor force as signs of constant flexibility. This feeling has also been echoed by other officials. Policy makers also continue to offer their normal cavits, so that if the labor market was to deteriorate rapidly, the fed will be designed to step with a lax policy, but for now, the authorities do not see this in the current data. Instead, while the Fed members are noteworthy that they are attentive to both their inflation and labor market mandate, most attention appears to be around the dynamics of inflation, where the speakers suggested that the volunteers suggested that there are some risks that may be more than the tariffs; For example, Fed’s Collins (Voter) stated that the core PCE inflation could be above 3% y/y by the end of the year. Nevertheless, the data of any decent jobs will be introduced as an argument by US President Trump as to why Fed must have already been in a relaxed cycle, increasing their recent criticism; Any negative surprise will also be likely to jump as an argument by the President why the fed should cut the rate.
US ISM Services PMI (Thu),
The consensus hopes that ISM services will return to expansion to PMI in June, analysts estimated an increase from 49.9 to 50.3. As a comparison, the US Flash Services PMI Business Activity Index decreased from 53.7 to 53.7 in June. S&P Global said that the activity of the service sector in June was solid, even though the output growth softened. The PMI indicated continuous expansion, with the new trade continues to grow on strong domestic demand, although exports saw the most quarterly decline from the end of 2022. Input costs and sales prices in services re -rise, due to large -scale tariffs, wages, financing and fuel, although inflation reduced from May. The backlogs increased at the fastest rate in three years, indicating the pressures of strong demand, inductioning the five -month high in hiring. However, commercial confidence in services fell, inspired by uncertainty on government policy, especially cuts. The survey compiler said that stable period development is being reduced by domestic demand, but export performance and soft spirit can be weighed at speed. Despite the rate of slow inflation in services, the price pressure remains high, the initial fed means limited scope for spontaneity, and policy makers are likely to be vigilant.
This article originally appeared on the newsquiq.
