OPEC+ Is likely to raise oil output quotas for August by 188K BPD.

Reuters is reporting that OPEC+ may increase oil production quotas for August by up to 188K bpd. OPEC+ meeting will be held on Sunday.

The increase would continue to gradually phase out OPEC+’s voluntary production cuts on a monthly basis. Assuming the group sticks to an additional increase of 188,000 bpd for August, it will remain on track to restore the remaining voluntary cuts in the coming months.

As for oil prices, the focus will likely shift from the main quota increase to the following:

• Can actual production increase to full volume?

• Compliance from members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.

• Global demand expectations.

• Geopolitical risks and any supply disruptions.

Crude oil prices hit a new cycle low $68.22This is its lowest level since the Iran conflict began. For perspective, agreement was reached on WTI $67.28 on February 27The day before the conflict began on February 28, it underlines how much of the geopolitical risk premium has now evaporated.

However, at the retail level, gasoline prices have not declined as much. latest AAA national average is for regular gasoline $3.84 per gallonroughly compared with $2.98 Around the beginning of the conflict. President Trump has repeatedly called on the retail gasoline industry to pass low crude oil prices to consumers more quickly, making low gasoline prices a key part of his economic agenda. By comparison, the national average at the end of President Biden’s term was approximately $3.11 per gallonPump prices are still above that level despite the recent decline in crude oil.

From a technical perspective, sellers remain in control. To shift the near-term bias back towards buyers, crude needs to recover first 100-hour moving average at $70.13. beyond that, 200-hour moving average at $71.89 and this 200-day moving average at $73.91 The bulls represent important resistance levels. Unless those barriers are broken and maintained, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.