July NY World Sugar #11 (SBN25) closed on Friday -0.11 (-0.63%), and August London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWQ25) closed -4.50 (-0.92%).
On Friday, sugar prices increased the sales of this week, in which NY Sugar posted a 2-week lower and London sugar in 4 months. In the last one week, expectations for a global Chinese surplus have mentioned prices. On Thursday, the USDA, in its bi-annual report, estimated that the global would climb 2025/26 Chinese production +4.7% y/y, which will be in a record of 189.318 mmt with a global Chinese surplus of 41.188 MMT, UP +7.5% Y/Y.
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Large global sugar production indications are negative for prices. On Thursday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 Chinese production +2.3% Y/Y will increase a record 44.7 mmt. In addition, India’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to increase from +25% y/y to 35.3 mmt, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acres. In addition, Thailand’s 2025/26 Chinese production is expected to climb 10.3 mmt to 10.3 mmt.
In India, the prices of sugar from outlook for abundant rainfall also decrease, which can cause bumper sugar crop. On 15 April, the Ministry of Earth Sciences of India estimated an above-normal monsoon this year, with a total rainfall of 105% of the long-term average. India’s monsoon season runs from June to September.
In a recession factor, the Government of India said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT sugar in this season, reducing the restrictions on sugar exports in 2023. India has banned Chinese exports from October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supply. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT sugar from September 30 during the 2022/23 season after India allowed a record 11.1 mm export in the previous season. However, the ISMA project that will fall India’s 2024/25 sugar production -17.5% y/y, which will be at a 5 -year low of 26.2 MMT. In addition, ISMA today reported that India’s sugar production from 1 -May 15 was 25.74 MMT, which was -17% from the same period last year. In addition, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said on 1 May that India’s 2024/25 Chinese exports can only be 800,000 MT, which is less than the expectations of 1 MMT first.
The approach to high sugar production in Thailand is a slowdown for sugar prices. On 2 May, the office of the sugarcane and sugar board of Thailand reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production increased to 14% y/y 10.00 mm. Thailand is the third largest Chinese producer in the world and the second largest Chinese exporter.
Less global sugar production indications support prices. Last Tuesday, Unika reported that Brazil 2025/26 Center for April -South Sugar Production -38.6% Y/Y fell to 1.58 mmt. Unika said on 14 April that the Cumulative 2024/25 Brazilian center-south sugar production through March fell from 5.3% y/y to 40.169 mmt. On March 12, the Indian Sugar and Energy Manufacturers Association cut its 2024/25 India Chinese production forecast by 26.4 mm from January 27.27 mm, which cited a lower cane yield.
Meanwhile, the International Chinese Organization (ISO) on Thursday raised its 2024/25 global Chinese deficit forecast -4.88 mm forecast for 9 -year -old -5.47 MMT, which shows a stringent market from 2023/24 global Chinese surplus of 1.31 MMT. The ISO cut its 2024/25 global Chinese production forecast to 174.8 mm from February 175.5 mm.
Drought and excessive heat set fire to Brazil last year, causing damage to Chinese crops in Brazil’s top Chinese-producing state Sao Paulo. Green pool commodity experts said that the fire may have lost 5 mm sugarcane sugarcane. Last month, Brazilian government crop forecast agency Conb, 2024/25 Brazilian sugar production is expected to fall from -3.4% y/y to 44.118 mmt, citing low sugarcane yield due to drought and excessive heat.
In its two-year-old report released on Thursday, USDA estimated that the global 2025/26 Chinese production +4.7% y/y will climb a record 189.318 mmt and the global 2025/26 human sugar consumption will increase +1.4% y/y record 177.921 mmt. The USDA also estimated that 2025/26 Global Sugar Ending Stock +7.5% Y/Y to climb 41.188 mmt.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
The idea and opinion expressed here are the idea and opinion of the author and not necessarily Nasdac, Inc.
