March NY World Sugar #11 (SBH25) is today +0.27 ( +1.28%), and May London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWK25) +5.10 ( +0.92%) is up.
The prices of sugar today increased their month’s long rally to a height of 2–1/4 months. According to India Sugar and Bio -Energy Manufacturers Association, Monday’s news in sugar prices was observed that India’s sugar production -12% YR/YR from 1 October to 15 February increased to 19.7 MMT in marketing from 1 October to 15 February.
A 2-maheen’s long rally in Brazil’s Real (^USDBRL) has discouraged the sale of exports from Brazilian Chinese producers and at least cover the fund in Chinese futures. On Tuesday, Brazil’s Real posted at a height of 3 months against the US dollar.
The world’s largest Chinese trader Alvian has done a positive carriageover since last Thursday, said that in Brazil, down-to-auspicious rain means that sugarcane is underdeveloped in some areas, and if the rainfall remains weak, then it starts in April. The sugar crop may be delayed. , And sugar production will be damaged.
In a recession factor, the Government of India said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT sugar in this season, reducing the restrictions on sugar exports in 2023. India has banned sugar exports from October 2023 to maintain enough domestic. supply. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT sugar from September 30 during the 2022/23 season after India allowed a record 11.1 mm export in the previous season. However, the India Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said India’s 2024/25 sugar production would fall -15% y/y, which will be at a 5 -year low of 27.27 MMT.
The approach to high sugar production in Thailand is a slowdown for sugar prices. On 29 October, Thailand’s sugarcane and Chinese board office estimated that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production would jump from +18% y/y to 10.35 mmt. Thailand produced 8.77 MMT sugar in the 2023/24 season ending in April. Thailand is the third largest Chinese producer in the world and the second largest Chinese exporter.
Drought and excessive heat set fire to Brazil last year, causing damage to Chinese crops in Brazil’s top Chinese-producing state Sao Paulo. Sugarcane Industry Group Orplan said that more than 2,000 fire outbreaks of 80,000 hectares of sugarcane were affected in Sao Paulo. Green pool commodity experts said that the fire may have lost 5 mm sugarcane sugarcane. Brazil’s official crop forecasting agency Conb, cut its 2024/25 Brazil Chinese production estimate from the previous forecast of 46 MMT from the previous forecast of 44 MMT from 21 November, which cites low sugarcane yield due to drought and excessive heat Is. Unika said on Thursday that 2024/25 Center -South Sugar Production -5.5% Y/Y fell 39.805 mmt through January.
The USDA released on November 21 in its two-year-old report, which estimates that the global 2024/25 sugar production +1.5% y/y will climb 186.619 mmt and the global 2024/25 will increase human sugar consumption + 1.2% y/y/y/y/y/y/y for a record 179.63 mmt. The USDA also estimated that 2024/25 Global Sugar Ending Stock -6.1% would fall from Y/Y to 45.427 mmt.
Meanwhile, on 21 November, the International Chinese Organization (ISO) estimated a global Chinese deficit of 2024/25 to -2.51 MMT, showing a tough market from the global Chinese surplus of 1.31 mm of 2023/24. For its share, on February 5, Green Pool Commodity experts estimated that the global Chinese market 2025/26 in 2024/25 in 2024/25 from the estimate of a deficit of a deficit of 3.7 mmt Will be done.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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