The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.36% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.391%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.63%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.37%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.67%.
Stock indexes are mostly higher today, with the S&P 500 at a 2-month high and the Nasdaq 100 at a 2.5-month high. Optimism about a possible peace deal in the Middle East is supporting stocks. The US and Iran reached an “agreement in principle” to extend the ceasefire to allow more diplomacy, the AP reported today. President Trump said Tuesday that peace talks with Iran could resume “in the next two days,” and that it may not be necessary to extend the ceasefire that was set to expire next week as the war is “close to ending.”
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The US military launched a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and President Trump threatened to retaliate if Iranian resistance occurs. Iran said it would target all ports in and near the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs were threatened.
Today’s US economic news is mixed for stocks. General business conditions in the April Empire Manufacturing survey rose from +11.2 to a 5-month high of 11.0, stronger than expected by 0.0. Additionally, the March import price index (ex-petroleum) rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. In contrast, the April NAHB Housing Market Index fell -4 to a 7-month low of 34, weaker than expected at 37.
US MBA mortgage applications increased +1.8% in the week ending April 10, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinance mortgage sub-index up +5.1%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -9 bp to 6.42% from 6.51% last week.
Cleveland Fed Chair Beth Hammack’s comments today were harsh and negative for stocks, as she said we are still missing a consistent inflation mandate and her bottom line is that the Fed is staying put for a “good time.”
WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) rose by more than +1% today as the US tightened its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the US vowed to block all ships passing through the strait that call on or visit Iranian ports. The blockade could worsen global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait. Iran has been able to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March.
Earnings season started this week, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to rise +12% year over year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Excluding the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to grow about +3%, the weakest in two years.
Markets are discounting a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
There was a mixed trend in foreign stock markets today. Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.59%. China’s Shanghai Composite hit a 4-week high and closed up +0.01%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a 1.5-month high and closed up +0.44%.
interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) are down -4 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.4bp at 4.272%. T-note prices are under pressure today amid higher WTI crude oil prices, raising inflation expectations. T-notes were lower after the April Empire Manufacturing Survey showed a stronger-than-expected rise in general business conditions to a 5-month high, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed is holding out for a “good time.” Losses in T-notes were limited after the April NAHB Housing Market Index fell more than expected to a seven-month low.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. 10-year German Bund yields are up +0.9bp to 3.033%. 10-year UK gilt yields are up +1.2bp to 4.792%.
Industrial production in the Eurozone rose +0.4% m/m in February, stronger than expected by +0.3% m/m.
The swaps are discounting a 25% chance of a +25bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Software stocks are rising today, recovering from their recent selloff. Datadog (DDOG) leads the gainers on the Nasdaq 100, rising more than +6%, and Microsoft (MSFT) leads the gainers on the Dow Jones Industrials, rising more than +3%. Additionally, ServiceNow (NOW) and Atlassian (TEAM) are up more than +5%, and Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +4%. Additionally, Autodesk (ADSK) and Intuit (INTU) are up more than +3%, and Workday (WDAY), Adobe (ADBE), and Salesforce (CRM) are up more than +2%.
Cybersecurity stocks are moving higher today as Cloudflare (NET) surged +5% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock from neutral to overweight with a $222 price target, calling it an “AI-winner to own.” Additionally, Okta (OKTA) is up more than +4%, and Zscaler (ZS) is up more than +3%. Additionally, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is up more than +1%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is up +0.37%.
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are under pressure today. Sandisk (SNDK) is down more than -5% and ASML Holding NV (ASML) is down more than -4%, leading the Nasdaq 100’s losers. Additionally, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX), KLA Corp. (KLAC), and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -3%. Additionally, Applied Materials (AMAT) is down more than -2%, and Western Digital (WDC), ARM Holdings PLC (ARM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -2%.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than +7% among the gainers on the S&P 500 after the SEC gave the green light to sweeping changes to restrictions on day-trading activity by retail investors.
Snap Inc. (SNAP) is up more than +7% after laying off 16% of its global workforce in an effort to reduce costs and regain profitability.
Morgan Stanley (MS) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 equity trading revenue of $5.15 billion, better than the consensus of $4.78 billion.
Gitlab (GTLB) is up more than +4% after announcing a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI.
Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +3% after it expanded its partnership with Meta Platform to deploy AI infrastructure.
Stellantis NV (STLA) is up more than +1% after reporting +12% year-over-year growth in Q1 global shipments, led by increased North American deliveries.
Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -3% after SEC filings showed that EVP Sadana sold $10.1 million worth of shares last Friday.
Dentply Sirona (XRAY) has fallen more than -1% after Citigroup reinstated coverage on the stock with a sell recommendation and a $10 price target.
Earnings Report(4/15/2026)
Bank of America Corp (BAC), First Horizon Corp (FHN), JB Hunt Transportation Services Inc (JBHT), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC), Progressive Corp/The (PGR).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here for more information.
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