The US dollar is lower against major currencies to start the North American session and the new trading week. The decline follows the dollar’s sharp gain on Friday as yields moved higher, and stocks fell sharply, with the NASDAQ index plunging more than 1100 points on geopolitical concerns and a stronger-than-expected US jobs report. Fed funds futures are now leaning towards tightening in 2026 – not easing. The strong labor market and rising energy prices have led the market to see the meaningful prospect of at least one rate hike this year, while expectations for a rate cut have largely evaporated.
Having said that, the tone has improved this morning. President. Trump posted on Truth Social:
Both sides, Israel and Iran, are seeking an immediate ceasefire! The final negotiations on “peace” are moving forward, provided ignorance or stupidity stands in the way. The blockade will continue in full force and effect until a “final agreement” is reached. things must move fast
It’s curious that the word “peace” is in quotes (as if not to be believed), but the market has jumped on a good story. Iran then announced an end to military operations against Israel, but warned of more harsh attacks if Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon. Israel fired missiles towards Lebanon despite the President. Trump appealed not to do so. Now it seems that there has been a ceasefire.
The USD has declined by 0.19% against the USD or by 0.19% against the EUR, by -0.22% against the JPY and by -0.20% against the GBP. The decline is larger against the NZD (-0.59%) and AUD (-0.41%) as some risk-off trades from Friday have ended. In the video above, I take a look at three major currency pairs from a technical perspective and outline the key technical levels involved, including risks and targets.
Crude oil is trading at $91.57, falling from upper levels. That’s still up about $1.00 on the day, but well below the high of $95.47. The lower price is $91.52 which is not far from the current level.
Looking at US stock indices in premarket trading:
- The Dow Industrial Average is up 146 points after falling 695 points on Friday.
- The S&P index is up 56 points after falling -200.59 points.
- NASDAQ index is up 378 points after falling -1121.53 points on Friday
Looking at the US debt market, yields are little changed but marginally lower in the short term:
- 2 years 4.151% -1.1 basis points
- 5 years 4.274%, -0.6 basis points
- 10 Year 4.540%, +0.4 basis points
- 30 Year 5.006%, +0.8 basis points
In other markets:
- Gold is up $5.40 or 0.12% at $4332
- Silver is up #0.61 or 0.91% at $68.50
Update:
- Israeli sources say, “Our campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon continues”
- There are also reports of air strikes targeting Lebanese tires
- Netanyahu and Trump spoke with Netanyahu saying that Pres. Trump and he agreed on the positions.
Couldn’t believe what was said. Despite the news headlines. The US stock market remains positive and the NASDAQ index is now up 400 points in premarket futures trading.
