Weekly Market Outlook (24-28 February)

Upcoming Events,

• monday: German Ifo.
• Tuesday: American consumer trust.
• Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI.
• Thursday: Switzerland Q4 GDP, US Durable Mall Order, US Q4 GDP (2^Ra Estimates), US unemployed claims.
• Friday: Tokyo CPI, France CPI, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US PCE.

Tuesday

American consumer confidence is expected before 103.0 vs 104.1. The previous report showed consumer quit for the second consecutive month, although it remained in the border created since 2022.

The Chief Economist of the Conference Board, Dana M. Peterson said: “All five components of the index deteriorated but the assessment of consumers of the current situation experienced the biggest decline. In particular, the views of the current labor market status fell for the first time since September, while assessing business conditions weakened for the second consecutive month. ,

“Meanwhile, consumers were less optimistic about future business conditions and to some extent, income. The return of pessimism regarding the future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January. ,

Wednesday

Australian Monthly CPI Y/Y 2.5% vs. 2.5% is expected. Inflation is gradually falling towards the RBA target, showing the underlying inflation inside the target band on an annual basis of 6 months with the latest Australian Q4 CPI.

As a reminder, the RBA cut interest rates from the required 25 BPS last week, but it was with more Hawkish than the expected guidance. We have also received the Australian employment report and once again the data showed a solid labor market.

Thursday

The US’s Jobless claims remain one of the most important releases to follow every week as it is a timely indicator on the labor market situation.

The initial claims remain within the 200K-260K range made since 2022, while the continued claims continue to hover around the high, although we have seen something easier recently.

The early claims of this week are expected before 220k vs. 219k, while there is no consensus at the time of writing for the ongoing claims, although last week we saw an increase before 1869k vs 1845k.

Friday

The Tokyo Core CPI Y/Y 2.3% vs. 2.5% is expected. JPY recently strengthened more Hawkish comments from BOJ authorities and concrete wage growth and inflation figures. Last Friday, JPY received another boost on some risk-closing moves after the sale of American stocks, which is weaker and a less than the expectations of long-term inflation in weakened and Umich Survey compared to the age of the US PMIS. After jumping at a high 30 -year high.

The US PCE Y/Y 2.5% vs. 2.6% is expected to be expected, while the M/m measurement is seen before 0.3% vs. 0.3%. Core PCE Y/Y 2.6% vs. 2.8% expect, while M/M figure 0.3% vs. 0.2% is seen earlier.

The forecasts may estimate PCE after being out of CPI and PPI, so the market already knows what is expected. Therefore, it should not affect the pricing of the current market until we see deviations from the required numbers.