Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has fallen more than 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) in the past year, and the downward trend may yet extend further.
key takeaways:
- ETH could decline by another 40% as it shows a bearish trend in 2025.
- Despite the decline in Bitcoin reserves, the increase in Ether reserves on Binance increases the chances of further decline in ETH.
ETH risks 40% downside after topping out near multi-year trend line
ETH/BTC is stuck below a multi-year descending trend line that has capped every breakout attempt since 2022, including the first attempt to drop nearly 70% between 2024 and 2025.
ETH/BTC monthly chart. Source: Trading View
One such setup now seems to be taking shape again.
After retesting the same trend line in August 2025, ETH/BTC was rejected near the confluence of resistance including the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA, red).
The pair has since declined and slipped below its 20-month EMA (green) support near 0.034 BTC, a sign that sellers continue to dominate the trend.
If weakness continues the next major downside target for 2026 comes around 0.0176 BTC. This level, approximately 40% below current rates, aligns with the 2020 cycle low.
Exchange reserves highlight ETH-BTC divergence
Exchange data points to continued selloff risks for Ether.
According to data resource CryptoQuant, by May, ETH reserves on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume, had reached 3.62 million ETH, which was about 24.6% of all ether held on exchanges.
Ethereum is reserved on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
In comparison, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen.
Bitcoin reserves on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
Increasing exchange balances generally indicate that more tokens are available for sale, which can impact the price when demand is not strong enough to absorb the additional supply.
On the other hand, falling reserves often suggest that coins are being removed from exchanges for a long period of time.
In that sense, Binance reserve trends reinforce the broader market picture: Ether is facing a relatively high available supply, while Bitcoin is showing signs of tight exchange-side liquidity.
Connected: Four signs that show Ethereum’s rally at $2.4K is over
Ethereum’s weakness reflects broader changes in fundamentals. For years, Ether has lagged behind Bitcoin partly because Ethereum’s “ultra money” narrative has lost momentum.
On the other hand, BTC is getting a boost from corporate accumulation led by companies like Strategy& and its increasing integration into Wall Street portfolios.
