Bitcoin (BTC) surged after weaker-than-expected US labor market data dampened expectations of tighter monetary policy.
one in report On Friday, crypto asset manager CoinShares said the recovery does not yet signal the start of a sustained uptrend, as restrictive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and lingering market headwinds are weighing on sentiment.
Weak jobs data eases pressure as Bitcoin climbs above $62,000
CoinShares shared that non-farm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, well below the consensus forecast of 115,000. The data pushed two-year US Treasury yields lower and prompted markets to reduce expectations of near-term rate hikes, helping Bitcoin recover from its recent cycle low of $57,000.
“Today’s print helps at the margin; it is not a policy pivot,” the report said.
CoinShares noted that the market reaction underlined Bitcoin’s sensitivity to changes in interest rate expectations. However, the firm argued that macroeconomic conditions remain challenging, but tensions among large investors have calmed.
CoinShares said, “Beneath the surface, the picture looks better than sentiment. It appears that whale distribution is doing its job.”
Wallets holding more than 100,000 BTC delivered approximately $39 billion worth of Bitcoin after the October 2025 market peak, but the selling pressure has now largely subsided, the report noted.
“Selling has slowed since then, removing the key impact that defined 2025,” CoinShares wrote.
The firm further reported that Bitcoin ETPs have recorded net outflows of approximately $2.7 billion this year. On the other hand, artificial intelligence-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted about $5.5 billion over the same period.
The divergence suggests that investors shifted capital toward one of the market’s strongest performing themes rather than abandoning Bitcoin altogether.
CoinShares also cautioned that several risks loom over the outlook, including the absence of easy monetary policy, a continued supply shortage tied to the strategy, geopolitical uncertainty around Iran, and the slow pace of US crypto legislation.
Option position points to continued uncertainty
Glassnode analysts struck a cautious tone, highlighting a continued defensive posture in the options market, even as Bitcoin rebounded from around $58,000.
“Options markets are reassessing the risk, volatility, and probabilities assigned to the next major move by investors,” Glassnode wrote in a statement. Post.
The firm said implied volatility as measured by the DVOL index is trending higher, reflecting growing uncertainty as Bitcoin’s recent selloff unfolds. However, volatility remains well below levels seen during previous major market disruptions, suggesting traders are reevaluating risk.
Glassnode said options markets are favoring protection from the downside, with the one-week 25 delta skew remaining positive as put options trade at a premium to calls. Bitcoin also remains in negative gamma territory, which means dealer hedging activity could increase price volatility in either direction.
Glassnode analysts said the current options market suggests investors remain cautious and uncertainty is expected to persist despite Bitcoin’s recent rally.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $62,450, up 1.5% in the last 24 hours.
