September Arabica Coffee (KCU25) closed on Tuesday +7.35 ( +2.64%), and September Ice Robusta Coffee (RMU25) +42 ( +1.19%) was closed.
Coffee prices were recovered from the initial deficit on Tuesday and the coffee-up areas of Brazil became rapidly inhabited after forecast for limited rainfall in next week, causing some small covers in the coffee futures.
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Normal rainfall in Brazil is helpful for coffee prices. Somar Meporologia said on Monday that Brazil’s largest Arab Coffee-Uugne region, Minas Gerace did not rain during the week ended July 5.
Coffee prices initially decreased on Tuesday, in which Sap Arabica Coffee was a contract low, as the advance coffee crop of coffee crop in Brazil is at weight prices. On Monday, July (N25), the contract of nearest communities decreased by 7.5 months. Brazil’s Kuxupe coffee cum-up announced on Tuesday that its members said that the coffee crop was 40% complete as July 4, compared to 52% at the same time last year. Cooxupe is Brazilian’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazilian coffee is the largest exporter.
In addition, Safras and Markado recently reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete till 11 June, slightly behind the comparable level of 37% last year, but in line with an average of 5 years of 35%. Breakdown revealed that 49% of Robusta Harvest and 26% Arabic Harvest was completed by 11 June.
The National Statistics Office of Vietnam said on Monday that Robusta Coffee is also under pressure on Robusta coffee on the signs of supply of coffee larger than 943,000 Mount to 943,000 Mount to 943,000 Mounts from Vietnam’s National Statistics Office.
Coffee prices have retreated in the last two months as the approach to the supply of abundant coffee supplies low prices. On 25 June, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimated that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production would increase 0.5% year-over year (Y/Y) to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output 6.9% y/y will increase to 4-year high levels to 31 million bags. Brazilian Arabica is the world’s largest producer of coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robsta coffee.
Robsta coffee prices have been supported as the snow-manner Robusta Coffee invention fell to 5,108 lots at a low of 7-week on 26 June, although they have rebounded since Tuesday 5,215 lots. However, the factor of a recession for Arabica prices is that on May 27, ice-maniched Arabica Coffee Inventories reached 892,468 bags at 5 months high and were below that high on 832,430 bags by Tuesday.
Small coffee from Brazil is fast for export prices. On 25 June, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s May Green Coffee exports -2.8 million bags fell from Y/Y to 2.8 million bags.
Due to drought, 1.472 MMT from -20% y/y became the smallest crop in four years from -20% y/y at Vietnam’s coffee production in 2023/24 crop year. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports -from 17.1% y/y to 1.35 mmt. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam Coffee Production Estimate to 26.5 million bags below December 12 from December 28 million.
The bipolar report of the USDA released on 25 June was a recession for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that world coffee production +2.5% y/y will increase to 178.68 million bags in 2025/26, a decrease in billion production -1.7% will increase by 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in 81.658 million bags. The USDA FAS estimates that the final stock of 2025/26 will climb on a 21.752 million bags in 2024/25 to +4.9% to 22.819 million bags.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe performs a global 2025/26 billion coffee deficit -8.5 million bags, which exceeds the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and lacks fifth consecutive year.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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