June WTI Crude Oil (CLM25) closed on Friday +1.11 ( +1.85%), and June RBOB Gasoline (RBM25) +0.0230 ( +1.10%) was closed.
Crude oil and gasoline prices took up rallies at a height of 1-1/2 weeks on Friday and it grew more. Friday was a weak dollar faster for energy prices. Furthermore, optimism about trade talks with China later this week on Thursday pushed the raw price prices with China after announcing a trade deal with the UK, which may have determined a template for other trade deals. In addition, raw colored prices increased as the UK is expected to approve 100 oil tankers that are part of a shade fleet of tankers helping Russia to move their oil, which can reduce the global raw raw supply.
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Additional American restrictions on Russian crude can curb global oil supply and support raw prices. American Senator Graham said last Thursday that if Russia refuses to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, it has support for a bill from 72 senators, which will implement “bone-cruel” new restrictions on Russia and will include 500% tariffs on imports from those countries which Russian crude, natural gas, natural gas, natural gas, and natural products, natural gas, and natural products, natural gas, and natural products to buy us Gas, uranium, and restricted.
Reducing geo -political risk in the Middle East is negative to raw value. President Trump said that the US had stopped its bombing campaign against the Hothi rebels in Yemen, as Oman had provided a ceasefire facility. In addition, Vice President Vance said on Wednesday that a nuclear agreement with Iran could re -establish the country in the global economy.
Crude prices decreased from Monday due to anxiety about a global oil shine on Saturday after OPEC+, which on Saturday agreed to increase its raw production level by 411,000 BPD in June. In a step that can give more pressure on rawness prices, Saudi Arabia indicated that an additional similar size increase in raw production can be followed, which is seen as a strategy to reduce oil prices and overpropuse for OPEC+ members such as Kazakhstan and Iraq.
OPEC+ 2 is promoting output to reversed a 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million BPD production. OPEC+ first planned to restore production between January and the end of 2025, but now the production cuts will not be completely restored by September 2026. OPEC APR crude production -200,000 BPD fell to 27.24 million BPD.
The US and Iran reported progress in a recent conversation on a deal on Iran’s nuclear program, with the negotiaters of the two sides agreed to meet again in Europe this week. Any agreement on Iran’s nuclear program can motivate the US to remove export restrictions on Iranian crude oil, which will promote oil supply on Doglobal Market, a slowdown for raw prices.
The decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is a rise for oil prices. Vortexa said on Monday that the crude oil stored on the tankers which were stable for at least seven days fell from -14% W/W to 79.84 million BBL in the week ended May 2.
In an auxiliary factor for crude oil prices, the US on January 10 imposed new restrictions on Russia’s oil industry that could curb global oil supply. According to Bloomberg data, measures targeted Gazprom NAFT and Serguttagas, which exported 970,000 BPD about around 970,000 BPD Russian crude in the first 10 months of 2024. The US also targeted hundreds of tanker cargo to insurers and traders. According to data compiled by Analytics firm Vortex’s Bloomberg, Russian oil product exports in March reached a 5 -month high of 3.45 million BPD. The weekly vessel -tracking data from Bloomberg showed from Russian raw exports that by May 4 a week -190,000 BPD W/W fell to 3.20 million BPD.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) The invention of American crude oil was below -7.3% from the seasonal 5 -year average till 2 May, (2) Gasoline invention was below -3.1% below the seasonal 5 -year average, and (3) Dystilate Inventory was below -13.1% below 5 -year -old average. The production of American crude oil in the week ended on 2 May -0.7% w/w fell to 13.367 million BPD, below the record high of 13.631 million BPD from the week of 6 December.
Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the American oils fell from Rigs -5 to 474 rigs in the week ended on 9 May, above the 3–1/4 -year low of 472 rigs posted on 24 January. The number of American oil rigs has fallen from the 5-year high 627 rigs in the last two years which has been posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
The idea and opinion expressed here are the idea and opinion of the author and not necessarily Nasdac, Inc.
