In our last update in mid -January, the IPO pulses of the NASDAQ for the US and Stockholm were indicating that the initial public offering (IPO) activity would probably be in a midyear in an uptar.
This may be the case that the economic situation was organized QUO (large -scale) – and uptrend in the IPO activity was caught through Q1 – but a lot has changed since January and even from the end of Q1.
IPO possibilities are now clearly weakening, and it started First The historic tariff announced on 2 April. In April, deep sales have added significant recession to the US and Stockholm IPO pulses. In fact, we have postponed IPOs to many companies in recent times.
NASDAQ IPO Pulse Signal is likely to soften US IPO activity
According to our analysis in January, IPO activity continued its uptrend in Q1 2025, with 58 non-spow IPO (below chart, green bar)-most in three years.
But a recession may be size.
After hovering at a high level of 3 years in December, the Nasdaq IPO Pulse has faded this year, which has fallen at a 16 -month low in March (Blue Line).
Chart 1: NasDaq IPO Pulse at 16 months low in March, before selling mutual tariffs
To determine if this recent weakness indicates a recession in IPO activity, we have compared it against the previous recession in the IPO pulse that indicates a real decline in IPO activity and which were false alarms. This comparison reflects the method that the National Bureau of National Economic Research has used to date the US recession, with the depth of recession in components and duration.
Unfortunately, for the first few months of the recession, the actual recession and false alarms are essentially unlucky. Therefore, through March, it is certainly not possible to say that the recession is assured, but in April there is a lot of possibility of in -depth market sales that it will soon catch as the actual recession Q2.
Stockholm IPO Pulse Cooling IPO is likely to pursue activity
In Stockholm, the situation is the same. Q1 IPO activity stood in an uptrend in Stockholm, with eight IPO (below chart, green bar)-the second highest in one quarter in one-fourth in three years, only Q4 is leaving behind 10 IPOs of 2024.
However, here too, IPO Pulse shows that this uplift is unlikely to be final.
After keeping its summer below 2024 high through January, the NASDAQ Stockholm fell at a 14 -month low in the IPO Pulse March (Blue Line).
Chart 2: Nasdac Stockholm IPO Pulse at 14 -month low in March
Stockholm, compared to this recession to the IPO activity and the previous recession expecting the real recession in the false alarm, this recession was already getting closer to a real recession in March based on its depth and proliferation in components. However, it is tracking false alarm in terms of period, and all three elements – depth, proliferation and duration – need to be in place for real recession to develop.
Like the US, Stockholm lies through premature March to declare a recession in IPO activity, but the possibility of a decline in global sales in April is highly.
Uncertainty and mutual tariff have increased
Through March, an important cause of dimming outlooks in IPO pulses increased uncertainty – a risk that we had revealed back in December 2025 Outlook.
This increased uncertainty was driven by a rapidly changing US trade policy, pushing the US uncertainty to a record high (below chart, red line) in March. Even though Sweden’s uncertainty (Blue Line) was around its historic average, uncertainty in the US spread to international markets.
Chart 3: Uncertainty is record high in America, but only average in Sweden
Since the mutual tariff was announced on 2 April, however, in response the global sales-off are going to further reduce the outlook.
In terms of returns, both MSCI Sweden (below chart, blue line) and MSCI USA (Red Line) reached the peak in mid-February and fell into improvement in each and each.
Chart 4: US uncertainty and trade policy contributing to improvement in US and Sweden
As a component in both IPO pulses, the market returns matters as it can filter in other components, such as evaluation, instability and emotion, which we have seen in the US and Stockholm. In April, this step in market returns will push IPO pulses into a deep decline.
The possibility of recession and stockhom in IPO activity in America is ahead
In the coming months, IPO activity is likely to slow down in the US and Stockholm, possibly important, because historical changes in business policy add to the headwind.
The seriousness of these recession will be clear in our next update in July.
