Bitcoin (BTC) and gold (XAU) remain under pressure at the time of writing on Monday. The crypto king has slipped below $63,000, while XAU inched closer to the psychologically important $4,000 support level.
The decline indicates that risk-averse sentiment dominates as investors continue to assess the impact of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
US-Iran ceasefire breaks down amid renewed tensions
United States (US) President Donald Trump has said that he will reinstate the blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. A CNN report highlights that this development could see the US acting as a “guardian” of the strait and charging any other ships a fee to pass through.
According to Iranian media reports, US attacks on Iran have intensified and extended beyond the coastal areas bordering the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, the Iranian military announced that it had attacked US allies in the region, including Kuwait and Bahrain, further deteriorating the ceasefire agreement. Oil prices continue to rise, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near $75 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin remains under pressure despite slight increase in futures activity
Bitcoin derivatives have defied the odds to attract a significant increase in investor interest, as reflected in perpetual futures open interest (OI), which reached nearly 760,000 BTC on Monday, up from 732,000 a day earlier. While the recent increase in Open Interest (OI) has not yet translated into direct price movement, a sustained increase could provide additional market momentum, potentially supporting a sustained Bitcoin rally.
Bitcoin has maintained a bearish near-term bias as it remains well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which are around $65,193, $68,675, and $74,713, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly tilted to the downside at around 48 on the daily chart, while the positive but easy moving average convergence divergence (MACD) suggests subdued bullish momentum within the overall capped environment.
Immediate resistance is the 50-day EMA near $65,193, followed by the 100-day EMA near $68,675 and then the 200-day EMA near $74,713, levels that collectively define a broad supply zone limiting recovery efforts. Looking below, initial support is provided by a reclaimed downward trendline break level around $62,106. A break below this zone would expose lower levels, reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias, while the pair remains trapped under the key EMA.
Tokenized gold derivatives surge as price falls
The XAU tokenized derivatives market on crypto exchange platforms has increased to 208,000 XAU on Monday from 169,000 XAU the previous day. While the surge has not yet had a meaningful impact on gold prices, it underlines the broader rotation of crypto investor capital toward real-world assets (RWAs).
The While the MACD histogram is positive and above zero, indicating a continued corrective bounce, the RSI around 38 keeps the directional pressure tilted to the downside, indicating that recovery efforts may struggle against the prevailing downtrend.
Initial resistance on the downside appears to be in the trendline break zone near $4,178, where sellers may re-emerge to defend the broader bearish structure. Above this area, the 50-day EMA at $4,298 is above as a subsequent hurdle, followed by the 200-day EMA at $4,326 and the 100-day EMA at $4,419, which together form a dense supply zone that would need to be decisively reclaimed to mitigate the current downside bias. Any new weakness below the current price level of $4,015 will leave XAU/USD vulnerable to further declines below the psychological $4,000 demand zone.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the help of AI tools. know more.)
